Related papers: Tail dependence of the Gaussian copula revisited
Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…
We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the…
The quotient correlation is defined here as an alternative to Pearson's correlation that is more intuitive and flexible in cases where the tail behavior of data is important. It measures nonlinear dependence where the regular correlation…
The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…
Likelihood-based procedures are a common way to estimate tail dependence parameters. They are not applicable, however, in non-differentiable models such as those arising from recent max-linear structural equation models. Moreover, they can…
The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…
The Peaks-Over Threshold is a fundamental method in the estimation of rare events such as small exceedance probabilities, extreme quantiles and return periods. The main problem with the Peaks-Over Threshold method relates to the selection…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…
The benefits of diversifying risks are difficult to estimate quantitatively because of the uncertainties in the dependence structure between the risks. Also, the modelling of multidimensional dependencies is a non-trivial task. This paper…
In this article we study the tail probability of the mass of critical Gaussian multiplicative chaos (GMC) associated to a general class of log-correlated Gaussian fields in any dimension, including the Gaussian free field (GFF) in dimension…
We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…
Based on a recent theorem due to the authors, it is shown how the extreme tail dependence between an asset and a factor or index or between two assets can be easily calibrated. Portfolios constructed with stocks with minimal tail dependence…
We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…
The Gaussian model equips strong properties that facilitate studying and interpreting graphical models. Specifically it reduces conditional independence and the study of positive association to determining partial correlations and their…
Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…
Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…
Let $X(t), t\in \mathcal{T}$ be a centered Gaussian random field with variance function $\sigma^2(\cdot)$ that attains its maximum at the unique point $t_0\in \mathcal{T}$, and let $M(\mathcal{T}):=\sup_{t\in \mathcal{T}} X(t)$. For…
We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…
In this paper, we develop a comprehensive asymptotic and bootstrap theory for checkerboard-based estimation of lower and upper tail copulas under unknown marginal distributions. The estimator is constructed via local bilinear (checkerboard)…