Related papers: Estimating trends in the global mean temperature r…
Considering high-temperature heating, the equations of transient heat conduction model require an adaptation, i.e. the dependence of thermophysical parameters of the model on the temperature is to be identified for each specific material to…
Standard (black-box) regression models may not necessarily suffice for accurate identification and prediction of thermal dynamics in buildings. This is particularly apparent when either the flow rate or the inlet temperature of the thermal…
Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
This paper is concerned with a contemporary Bayesian approach to the effect of temperature on developmental rates. We develop statistical methods using recent computational tools to model four commonly used ecological non-linear…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…
In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the statistics of record-breaking events in stochastic processes. Along with that, many new and interesting applications of the theory of records were discovered and explored. The record…
It is important to predict how the Global Mean Temperature (GMT) will evolve in the next few decades. The ability to predict historical data is a necessary first step toward the actual goal of making long-range forecasts. This paper…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…
The underground rates of cosmic-ray muons exhibit seasonal variations correlated with effective atmospheric temperature, quantified via a single coefficient. We compare two analysis methods for studying the correlation: the standard…
Data-driven modeling and control of temperature dynamics in mechatronics systems and industrial processes are challenging control engineering problems. This is mainly because the temperature dynamics is inherently infinite-dimensional,…
Detrended fluctuation analysis is used to investigate correlations between the monthly average of the maximum daily temperatures for different locations in the continental US and the different climates these locations have. When we plot the…
Generative models of complex systems often require post-hoc parameter adjustments to produce useful outputs. For example, energy-based models for protein design are sampled at an artificially low ''temperature'' to generate novel,…
Irreversible thermodynamics of simple fluids have been connected recently to the theory of dynamical systems and some interesting assumptions have been made about the nature of the associated invariant measures. We show that the tests of…
We built a model of the daily temperature based on a diffusion process and address to extreme values not taken into account in the literature on this kind of models. We first study, using non parametric tools, the trends on mean and…
Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being…