Related papers: Estimating trends in the global mean temperature r…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…
Multiple hypotheses/models have been put forward regarding the cooling history of the Earth. The search for life beyond Earth has brought these models into a new light as they connect to one of the two energy sources life can tap. The…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on…
Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…
The thermal characterisation of a building envelope is usually best performed from on site measurements with controlled heating power set points. Occupant-friendly measurement conditions provide on the contrary less informative data.…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
Rapid compression machines (RCMs) have been widely used in the combustion literature to study the low-to-intermediate temperature ignition of many fuels. In a typical RCM, the pressure during and after the compression stroke is measured.…
When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program is a U.S. Department of Energy project that collects meteorological observations at several locations around the world in order to study how weather processes affect global climate change. As…
Radio occultations are commonly used to assess remotely the thermodynamic properties of planets or satellites' atmospheres within the solar system. The data processing usually involves the so-called Abel inversion method or the numerical…
Difference-in-differences (DiD) identification relies mainly on a parallel trends assumption about untreated potential outcomes. Researchers often relax this assumption by assuming conditional parallel trends within units with the same…
Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…
We evaluate the impact of inference model on uncertainties when using continuous wave Optically Detected Magnetic Resonance (ODMR) measurements to infer temperature. Our approach leverages a probabilistic feedforward inference model…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Low-cost thermal cameras are inaccurate (usually $\pm 3^\circ C$) and have space-variant nonuniformity across their detector. Both inaccuracy and nonuniformity are dependent on the ambient temperature of the camera. The goal of this work…
Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…