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The theory of large deviations has been applied successfully in the last 30 years or so to study the properties of equilibrium systems and to put the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics on a clearer and more rigorous footing. A…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…
In this article, we introduce \textit{Mallows processes}, defined to be continuous-time c\`adl\`ag processes with Mallows distributed marginals. We show that such processes exist and that they can be restricted to have certain natural…
We analyse large deviations of time-averaged quantities in stochastic processes with long-range memory, where the dynamics at time t depends itself on the value q_t of the time-averaged quantity. First we consider the elephant random walk…
We derive a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem, a law of the iterated logarithm and a large deviation theorem for so-called deviation means of independent and identically distributed random variables (for the strong law of…
A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…
We address the problem of sequentially selecting and observing processes from a given set to find the anomalies among them. The decision-maker observes a subset of the processes at any given time instant and obtains a noisy binary indicator…
We study the large deviations for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes with small noise and state-dependent fast switching via associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations. As the separation of time scales, when the noise goes to $0$ and the rate of…
Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…
The law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for the time-homogeneous Markov process with a unique invariant measure characterizes the almost sure maximum possible fluctuation of time averages around the ergodic limit. Whether a numerical…
We consider products of random matrices that are small, independent identically distributed perturbations of a fixed matrix $T_0$. Focusing on the eigenvalues of $T_0$ of a particular size we obtain a limit to a SDE in a critical scaling.…
In this paper we establish spatial central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes with general spatial-dependent branching mechanisms. These are generalizations of the spatial central limit theorems…
For non-equilibrium systems described by finite Markov processes, we consider the number of times that a system traverses a cyclic sequence of states (a cycle). The joint distribution of the number of forward and backward instances of any…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential…
Markov processes restarted or reset at random times to a fixed state or region in space have been actively studied recently in connection with random searches, foraging, and population dynamics. Here we study the large deviations of…
We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological…
We consider time-continuous Markovian discrete-state dynamics on random networks of interacting agents and study the large population limit. The dynamics are projected onto low-dimensional collective variables given by the shares of each…
We consider the Fleming--Viot particle system associated with a continuous-time Markov chain in a finite space. Assuming irreducibility, it is known that the particle system possesses a unique stationary distribution, under which its…
This paper develops central limit theorems (CLT's) and large deviations results for additive functionals associated with reflecting diffusions in which the functional may include a term associated with the cumulative amount of boundary…
In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…