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Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been employed for a range of modelling and prediction tasks using financial data. However, evidence on their predictive performance, especially for time-series data, has been mixed. Whereas some…
Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty…
The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…
We present an optimized rerandomization design procedure for a non-sequential treatment-control experiment. Randomized experiments are the gold standard for finding causal effects in nature. But sometimes random assignments result in…
Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…
For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…
We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…
We develop a non-standard analysis framework for coherent risk measures and their finite-sample analogues, coherent risk estimators, building on recent work of Aichele, Cialenco, Jelito, and Pitera. Coherent risk measures on $L^\infty$ are…
Estimation of signal-to-noise ratios and residual variances in high-dimensional linear models has various important applications including, e.g. heritability estimation in bioinformatics. One commonly used estimator, usually referred to as…
In biomedical settings, multitype recurrent events such as stroke and heart failure occur frequently, often concluding with a terminal event such as death. Understanding the links between these recurring and terminal events is fundamental…
Utilizing recently introduced concepts from statistics and quantitative risk management, we present a general variant of Batch Normalization (BN) that offers accelerated convergence of Neural Network training compared to conventional BN. In…
We consider records and sequences of records drawn from discrete time series of the form $X_{n}=Y_{n}+cn$, where the $Y_{n}$ are independent and identically distributed random variables and $c$ is a constant drift. For very small and very…
Consider directed polymers in a random environment on the complete graph of size $N$. This model can be formulated as a product of i.i.d. $N\times N$ random matrices and its large time asymptotics is captured by Lyapunov exponents and the…
Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential…
We develop a monitoring procedure to detect changes in a large approximate factor model. Letting $r$ be the number of common factors, we base our statistics on the fact that the $\left( r+1\right) $-th eigenvalue of the sample covariance…
For a risk-averse finite-horizon Markov Decision Problem, we introduce a special class of Markov coherent risk measures, called mini-batch measures. We also define the class of multipattern risk-averse problems that generalizes the class of…
We develop a framework for regularly varying measures on complete separable metric spaces $\mathbb{S}$ with a closed cone $\mathbb{C}$ removed, extending material in Hult & Lindskog (2006), Das, Mitra & Resnick (2013). Our framework…
We transform the randomness of LLMs into precise assurances using an actuator at the API interface that applies a user-defined risk constraint in finite samples via Conformal Risk Control (CRC). This label-free and model-agnostic actuator…
The recurrent neural network and its variants have shown great success in processing sequences in recent years. However, this deep neural network has not aroused much attention in anomaly detection through predictively process monitoring.…
We propose a sigmoidal approximation for the value-at-risk (that we call SigVaR) and we use this approximation to tackle nonlinear programs (NLPs) with chance constraints. We prove that the approximation is conservative and that the level…