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In generalized extreme value model for the r largest order statistics, denoted by rGEV, the selection of r is critical. The existing entropy difference test for selecting r is applicable to large sample. Another existing method (the score…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Yire Shin , Jihong Park , Jeong-Soo Park

The false discovery rate (FDR)---the expected fraction of spurious discoveries among all the discoveries---provides a popular statistical assessment of the reproducibility of scientific studies in various disciplines. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-10 Weijie Su , Junyang Qian , Linxi Liu

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Unnormalized probability distributions are central to modeling complex physical systems across various scientific domains. Traditional sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), often suffer from slow convergence, critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Vikas Kanaujia , Vipul Arora

A common assumption when sampling $p$-dimensional observations from $K$ distinct group is the equality of the covariance matrices. In this paper, we propose two penalized $M$-estimation approaches for the estimation of the covariance or…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Esa Ollila , Ilya Soloveychik , David E. Tyler , Ami Wiesel

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for investigating causal relationships, with comparisons of potential outcomes under different treatment groups used to estimate treatment effects. However, outcomes with heavy-tailed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Hongzi Li , Wei Ma , Yingying Ma , Hanzhong Liu

We investigate the estimation of multivariate extreme models with a discrete spectral measure using spherical clustering techniques. The primary contribution involves devising a method for selecting the order, that is, the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Shiyuan Deng , He Tang , Shuyang Bai

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, and randomization serves as a reasoned basis for inference. In widely used stratified randomized experiments, randomization-based finite-population asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Haoyang Yu , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Methods have been developed for Mendelian randomization that can obtain consistent causal estimates while relaxing the instrumental variable assumptions. These include multivariable Mendelian randomization, in which a genetic variant may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-02 Jessica M. B. Rees , Angela Wood , Stephen Burgess

Estimating nested expectations is an important task in computational mathematics and statistics. In this paper we propose a new Monte Carlo method using post-stratification to estimate nested expectations efficiently without taking samples…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-28 Tomohiko Hironaka , Takashi Goda

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lei Yang , Michael J. Daniels , Fan Li

This paper surveys some well-established approaches on the approximation of Bayes factors used in Bayesian model choice, mostly as covered in Chen et al. (2000). Our focus here is on methods that are based on importance sampling strategies…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-14 Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Muhammad Mubashar , Kaizheng Wang , Fabio Cuzzolin

In this paper, we propose a sample-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) scheme for general nonlinear systems to estimate the current system state using irregularly and/or infrequently available measurements. The cost function of the MHE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-24 Isabelle Krauss , Victor G. Lopez , Matthias A. Müller

Covariance regression offers an effective way to model the large covariance matrix with the auxiliary similarity matrices. In this work, we propose a sparse covariance regression (SCR) approach to handle the potentially high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Yuan Gao , Zhiyuan Zhang , Zhanrui Cai , Xuening Zhu , Tao Zou , Hansheng Wang

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) from multiple logging policies, each generating a dataset of fixed size, i.e., stratified sampling. Previous work noted that in this setting the ordering of the variances of different importance sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Nathan Kallus , Yuta Saito , Masatoshi Uehara

This paper studies macroeconomic forecasting and variable selection using a folded-concave penalized regression with a very large number of predictors. The penalized regression approach leads to sparse estimates of the regression…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-07 Yoshimasa Uematsu , Shinya Tanaka

This article aims to propose and apply a machine learning method to analyze the direction of returns from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) using the historical return data of its components, helping to make investment strategy decisions through…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-14 Raphael P. B. Piovezan , Pedro Paulo de Andrade Junior

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) and non-negative tensor factorization (NTF) decompose non-negative high-dimensional data into non-negative low-rank components. NMF and NTF methods are popular for their intrinsic interpretability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Alexander Sietsema , Zerrin Vural , James Chapman , Yotam Yaniv , Deanna Needell