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Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Alexandra M. Jurgens , Nicolas Brodu

The discovery of causal relations from observed data has attracted significant interest from disciplines such as economics, social sciences, and biology. In practical applications, considerable knowledge of the underlying systems is often…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-19 Yu Terada , Ken Arai , Yu Tanaka , Yota Maeda , Hiroshi Ueno , Hiroyuki Tezuka

A subvector of predictor that satisfies the ignorability assumption, whose index set is called a sufficient adjustment set, is crucial for conducting reliable causal inference based on observational data. In this paper, we propose a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Wei Luo , Fei Qin , Lixing Zhu

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Feature selection is an important but challenging task in causal inference for obtaining unbiased estimates of causal quantities. Properly selected features in causal inference not only significantly reduce the time required to implement a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Tianyu Yang , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

Recently, a unified framework for adaptive kernel based signal processing of complex data was presented by the authors, which, besides offering techniques to map the input data to complex Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, developed a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-30 Pantelis Bouboulis , Sergios Theodoridis , Michael Mavroforakis

We propose new optimal estimators for the Lipschitz frontier of a set of points. They are defined as kernel estimators being sufficiently regular, covering all the points and whose associated support is of smallest surface. The estimators…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Anatoli Iouditski , Alexander Nazin

Many scientific problems involve data exhibiting both temporal and cross-sectional dependencies. While linear dependencies have been extensively studied, the theoretical analysis of regression estimators under nonlinear dependencies remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Marie-Christine Düker , Adam Waterbury

We introduce and study the persuasive calibration problem, where a principal aims to provide trustworthy predictions about underlying events to a downstream agent to make desired decisions. We adopt the standard calibration framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Yiding Feng , Wei Tang

We propose a matching method for observational data that matches units with others in unit-specific, hyper-box-shaped regions of the covariate space. These regions are large enough that many matches are created for each unit and small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Marco Morucci , Vittorio Orlandi , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

We address the problem of causal effect estimation where hidden confounders are present, with a focus on two settings: instrumental variable regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Haotian Sun , Antoine Moulin , Tongzheng Ren , Arthur Gretton , Bo Dai

The estimation of causal effects is a fundamental goal in the field of causal inference. However, it is challenging for various reasons. One reason is that the exposure (or treatment) is naturally continuous in many real-world scenarios.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-01 Suhwan Bong , Kwonsang Lee

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

In recent years, machine learning researchers have focused on methods to construct flexible and interpretable prediction models. However, an interpretability evaluation, a relationship between generalization performance and an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-08 Jinwei Zhao , Qizhou Wang , Yufei Wang , Yu Liu , Zhenghao Shi , Xinhong Hei

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Many scientific studies collect data where the response and predictor variables are both functions of time, location, or some other covariate. Understanding the relationship between these functional variables is a common goal in these…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-12 Xiaoxiao Sun , Pang Du , Xiao Wang , Ping Ma

We propose an empirical Bayes framework for aggregating estimators obtained from several identification functionals associated to the same causal parameter. The central object is a posterior mean that pools a collection of asymptotically…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Carlos García Meixide , David Ríos Insua