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Related papers: Solar cycle full-shape predictions: a global error…

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We use archival daily spot coverage measurements from Howard et al. (1984) to study the rotational modulation of the Sun as though it were a distant star. A quasi-periodic Gaussian process measures the solar rotation period $P_\mathrm{rot}…

Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Quentin Paletta , Joan Lasenby

One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-05 Bidya Binay Karak

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

The North-South asymmetry of solar activity is variable in time and strength. We analyse the long-term variation of the phase lags of hemispheric cycles and check a conjectured relationship between these phase lags and the hemispheric cycle…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-09-10 J. Muraközy , A. Ludmány

Long-term modulation of solar differential rotation was studied with data from Mt. Wilson and our original observations during Solar Cycles 16 through 23. The results are: i) The global B-value (i.e. latitudinal gradient of differential…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-07-23 Miyoshi Suzuki

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…

Astrophysics · Physics 2016-03-09 M. S. Wheatland

Long-term sensor network deployments demand careful power management. While managing power requires understanding the amount of energy harvestable from the local environment, current solar prediction methods rely only on recent local…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2014-10-28 Elizabeth Basha , Raja Jurdak , Daniela Rus

Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of solar cycle. (i) A linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, (ii) a linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle $n$ and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-08-06 Gopal Hazra , Bidya Binay Karak , Dipankar Banerjee , Arnab Rai Choudhuri

Further development of the work of Obridko et al. [1] based on recent data confirms the assumption that the 25th cycle of solar activity is a medium-low cycle. Its height is expected to be $125.2\pm5.6$, and the expected date of the maximum…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-13 V. N. Obridko , D. D. Sokoloff , M. M. Katsova

Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Jie Jiang , Piyali Chatterjee , Arnab Rai Choudhuri

Analysis of over 36 years of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five components of the variation of the seven measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 years), (b)…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Jeffrey Scargle , Stephen Keil , Pete Worden

The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-04 Kilian Bakker , Kirien Whan , Wouter Knap , Maurice Schmeits

To better understand the influence of the activity cycle on the solar atmosphere, we report the time variation of the radius observed at 37 GHz ($\lambda$=8.1 mm) obtained by the Mets\"ahovi Radio Observatory (MRO) through Solar Cycles 22…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-17 Caius L. Selhorst , Juha Kallunki , C. G. Giménez de Castro , Adriana Valio , Joaquim E. R. Costa

We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-06-18 R. Cameron M. Schüssler

We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-01-26 J. Javaraiah

Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-02 Lisa A. Upton , David H. Hathaway

The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-09 Pawan Kumar , Melinda Nagy , Alexandre Lemerle , Bidya Binay Karak , Kristof Petrovay

Sunspots are the most important indicator of the magnetic activity on the solar surface during a cycle. Every sunspot group is formed and shaped by the magnetic field of the Sun. Hence, the magnetic field intensity shows itself as the size…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-12 Hikmet Çakmak

We use Sun-as-a-star helioseismology data, collected by the Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON), to examine the relationship between the solar-cycle-induced frequency shifts of whole-Sun, low-angular degree solar p modes and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-29 William J. Chaplin , Sarbani Basu , Rachel Howe , Yvonne Elsworth , Steven J. Hale , Eleanor Murray