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Related papers: Solar cycle full-shape predictions: a global error…

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We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-09-04 Ali Kilcik , Atila Ozguc

We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…

We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value of the solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be the most reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. The method…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-29 Kristóf Petrovay , Melinda Nagy , Anthony R. Yeates

The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-15 E. Weisshaar , R. H. Cameron , M. Schüssler

The polar field reversal is a crucial process in the cyclic evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun.Various important characteristics of a solar cycle, such as its duration and strength, and also the cycle predictability, are…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-02 Elena M. Golubeva , Akash Biswas , Anna I. Khlystova , Pawan Kumar , Bidya Binay Karak

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues the official U.S. government forecast for M-class and X-class solar flares, yet the skill of these forecasts has never been comprehensively verified. In this study, we evaluate the SWPC…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-12-09 Enrico Camporeale , Thomas E. Berger

We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…

Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-10-20 Andrey G. Tlatov , Alexei A. Pevtsov

The Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON) has been collecting data for over 30yrs and so observations span nearly three 11yr solar activity cycles. This allows us to address important questions concerning the solar cycle and its…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-10-21 A. M. Broomhall , W. J. Chaplin , Y. Elsworth , R. New , G. A. Verner

The scaling relations for solar-like oscillations provide a translation of the features of the stochastic low-degree modes of oscillation in the Sun to predict the features of solar-like oscillations in other stars with convective outer…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-07-25 S. Hekker

Some selected concepts for the solar activity cycle are briefly reviewed. Cycle modulations through a stochastic alpha effect are being identified with limited scale separation ratios. Three-dimensional turbulence simulations with helicity…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-07-17 Axel Brandenburg , Gustavo Guerrero

Among several heliophysical and geophysical quantities, the accurate evolution of the solar irradiance is fundamental to forecast the evolution of the neutral and ionized components of the Earth's atmosphere.We developed an artificial…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-23 Luis Eduardo A. Vieira , Thierry Dudok de Wit , Matthieu Kretzschmar

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-18 Eduardo Flandez , Victor Munoz

The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…

Geophysics · Physics 2014-11-20 Nicola Scafetta

It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-18 Maria Dasi-Espuig , Sami K. Solanki , Natasha A. Krivova , Robert H. Cameron , Tania Peñuela

In this article, we report an evidence of very high and statistically significant relationship between hemispheric asymmetry in solar coronal rotation rate and solar activity. Our approach is based on cross correlation of hemispheric…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-28 Jaidev Sharma , Anil K Malik , Brajesh Kumar , Hari Om Vats

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-04-27 M. Lindholm Nielsen , H. Kjeldsen

In this paper, solar cycles 21 to 24 were compared using complex network analysis. A network was constructed for these four solar cycles to facilitate the comparison. In these networks, the nodes represent the active regions of the Sun that…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-17 Eduardo Flández , Alejandro Zamorano , Víctor Muñoz

The daily sunspot numbers of the whole disk as well as the northern and southern hemispheres from January 1, 1945 to December 31, 2010 are used to investigate the temporal variation of the rotational cycle length through the continuous…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 J. -L. Xie , X. -J. Shi , J. -C. Xu

To study and forecast the solar activity data a quite perspective method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed. As known, data of the solar activity are usually presented via the Wolf numbers associated with the effective amount…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Loskutov , I. A. Istomin , K. M. Kuzanyan , O. L. Kotlyarov