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Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-09 Thibaut Arnoulx de Pirey , Guy Bunin

In this paper, we develop an in-depth analysis of non-reversible Markov chains on denumerable state space from a similarity orbit perspective. In particular, we study the class of Markov chains whose transition kernel is in the similarity…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-21 Michael C. H. Choi , Pierre Patie

We study two famous interacting particle systems, the so-called Richardson's model and the contact process, when we add a stirring dynamics to them. We prove that they both satisfy an asymptotic shape theorem, as their analogues without…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Régine Marchand , Irène Marcovici , Pierrick Siest

An elementary proof is given for a theorem showing that certain birth-death chains show martingale-like behavior at large stopping times. This is a generalization of and new proof for a theorem from a earlier paper by the author.

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-28 Greg Markowsky

We study random walk on complex networks with transition probabilities which depend on the current and previously visited nodes. By using an absorbing Markov chain we derive an exact expression for the mean first passage time between pairs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-11-14 Lasko Basnarkov , Miroslav Mirchev , Ljupco Kocarev

Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Reza Mohammadi , Matthew Pratola , Maurits Kaptein

We study a Markov birth-and-death process on a space of locally finite configurations, which describes an ecological model with a density dependent fecundity regulation mechanism. We establish existence and uniqueness of this process and…

Many-variable differential equations with random coefficients provide powerful models for the dynamics of many interacting species in ecology. These models are known to exhibit a dynamical phase transition from a phase where population…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-19 Thibaut Arnoulx de Pirey , Guy Bunin

The aim of this paper is to study the large population limit of a binary branching particle system with Moran type interactions: we introduce a new model where particles evolve, reproduce and die independently and, with a probability that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-12 Alexander M. G. Cox , Emma Horton , Denis Villemonais

We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain framework for estimating population size from multi-list data, which allows directional interactions to be modelled and can accommodate absorbing lists, such as death records, or more general data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Ophélie Schaller , Andrew Titman , Rachel McCrea

In this paper, we study the significance of ecological interactions and separation of birth and death dynamics in stochastic heterogeneous populations via general birth-death processes. Interactions can manifest through the birth dynamics,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-03 Erin Beckman , Heyrim Cho , Linh Huynh

It is possible to represent each of a number of Markov chains as an evolving sequence of connected subsets of a directed acyclic graph that grow in the following way: initially, all vertices of the graph are unoccupied, particles are fed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Steven N. Evans , Rudolf Gruebel , Anton Wakolbinger

Density dependent Markov population processes with countably many types can often be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, provided that the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-05 A. D. Barbour , Malwina Luczak

The purpose of this paper is to implement a random death process into a persistent random walk model which produces subballistic superdiffusion (L\'{e}vy walk). We develop a Markovian model of cell motility with the extra residence variable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-20 Sergei Fedotov , Abby Tan , Andrey Zubarev

Perturbation analysis of Markov chains provides bounds on the effect that a change in a Markov transition matrix has on the corresponding stationary distribution. This paper compares and analyzes bounds found in the literature for finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Karim Abbas , Joost Berkhout , Bernd Heidergott

We show via counterexamples that relative entropy between the solution of a Markovian master equation and the steady state is not a convex function of time. We thus let down a curtain on a possible formulation of a principle of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-09-06 Matteo Polettini , Massimiliano Esposito

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

The cutoff phenomenon is an abrupt transition from out of equilibrium to equilibrium undergone by certain Markov processes in the limit where the size of the state space tends to infinity: instead of decaying gradually over time, their…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-29 Justin Salez

We solve a simple model that supports a dynamic phase transition and show conditions for the existence of the transition. Using methods of large deviation theory we analytically compute the probability distribution for activity and entropy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-10-17 Todd R. Gingrich , Suriyanarayanan Vaikuntanathan , Phillip L. Geissler

We characterize absorption-time distributions for birth-death Markov chains with an absorbing boundary. For "extinction-prone" chains (which drift on average toward the absorbing state) the asymptotic distribution is Gaussian, Gumbel, or…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-06-08 David Hathcock , Steven H. Strogatz
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