Related papers: Generalized Subjective Lexicographic Expected Util…
How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…
In this paper we define the canonical mixed extension of a decision form game. We motivate the necessity to introduce this concept and we show several examples about the new concept. In particular we focus our study upon the mixed…
In this paper, we consider the revealed preferences problem from a learning perspective. Every day, a price vector and a budget is drawn from an unknown distribution, and a rational agent buys his most preferred bundle according to some…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
Counterfactual utilities evaluate decisions not only by the realized outcome under a given decision, but also by the counterfactual outcomes that would arise under alternative decisions. By generalizing standard utility frameworks, they…
The framework of graded semantics uses graded monads to capture behavioural equivalences of varying granularity, for example as found on the linear-time/branching-time spectrum, over general system types. We describe a generic…
Multicriteria decision analysis aims at supporting a person facing a decision problem involving conflicting criteria. We consider an additive utility model which provides robust conclusions based on preferences elicited from the decision…
Despite the number of NLP studies dedicated to thematic fit estimation, little attention has been paid to the related task of composing and updating verb argument expectations. The few exceptions have mostly modeled this phenomenon with…
We introduce a new hypothesis testing-based learning dynamics in which players update their strategies by combining hypothesis testing with utility-driven exploration. In this dynamics, each player forms beliefs about opponents' strategies…
Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The…
We consider finite games in strategic form with Choquet expected utility. Using the notion of (unambiguously) believed, we define Choquet rationalizability and characterize it by Choquet rationality and common beliefs in Choquet rationality…
We consider a single-period portfolio selection problem for an investor, maximizing the expected ratio of the portfolio utility and the utility of a best asset taken in hindsight. The decision rules are based on the history of stock returns…
Richard Cox [1] set the axiomatic foundations of probable inference and the algebra of propositions. He showed that consistency within these axioms requires certain rules for updating belief. In this paper we use the analogy between…
Risk aggregation is a popular method used to estimate the sum of a collection of financial assets or events, where each asset or event is modelled as a random variable. Applications, in the financial services industry, include insurance,…
Sharpe et al. proposed the idea of having an expected utility maximizer choose a probability distribution for future wealth as an input to her investment problem instead of a utility function. They developed a computer program, called The…
We initiate a novel direction in randomized social choice by proposing a new definition of agent utility for randomized outcomes. Each agent has a preference over all outcomes and a {\em quantile} parameter. Given a {\em lottery} over the…
We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…
We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…
Geometry constitutes a core set of intuitions present in all humans, regardless of their language or schooling [1]. Could brain's built in machinery for processing geometric information take part in uncertainty representation? For decades…
We introduce an evolutionary game on hypergraphs in which decisions between a risky alternative and a safe one are taken in social groups of different sizes. The model naturally reproduces choice shifts, namely the differences between the…