English

From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning

Neurons and Cognition 2020-10-29 v1 Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning

Abstract

Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The resulting taxonomy provides a set of predictors for which explanations people prefer and shows how core values from psychology, statistics, and the philosophy of science emerge from a common mathematical framework. In addition to operationalizing the explanatory virtues associated with, for example, scientific argument-making, this framework also enables us to reinterpret the explanatory vices that drive conspiracy theories, delusions, and extremist ideologies.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2006.02359,
  title  = {From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning},
  author = {Zachary Wojtowicz and Simon DeDeo},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.02359},
  year   = {2020}
}

Comments

19 pages, 1 figure, comments welcome

R2 v1 2026-06-23T16:01:56.677Z