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Most forecasting methods use recent past observations (lags) to model the future values of univariate time series. Selecting an adequate number of lags is important for training accurate forecasting models. Several approaches and heuristics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-21 José Leites , Vitor Cerqueira , Carlos Soares

Despite overwhelming achievements in recognition accuracy, extending an open-set capability -- ability to identify when the question is out of scope -- remains greatly challenging in a scalable machine learning inference. A recent research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Pisit Nakjai , Jiradej Ponsawat , Tatpong Katanyukul

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Maximilian Seitzer , Arash Tavakoli , Dimitrije Antic , Georg Martius

Designing robust algorithms capable of training accurate neural networks on uncurated datasets from the web has been the subject of much research as it reduces the need for time consuming human labor. The focus of many previous research…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Paul Albert , Eric Arazo , Tarun Krishna , Noel E. O'Connor , Kevin McGuinness

In current applied research the most-used route to an analysis of composition is through log-ratios -- that is, contrasts among log-transformed measurements. Here we argue instead for a more direct approach, using a statistical model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 David Firth , Fiona Sammut

That the logarithmic distribution manifests itself in the random as well as in the deterministic (multiplication processes) has long intrigued researchers in Benford's Law. In this article it is argued that it springs from one common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-01 Alex Ely Kossovsky

Suppose $L$ simultaneous independent stochastic systems generate observations, where the observations from each system depend on the underlying parameter of that system. The observations are unlabeled (anonymized), in the sense that an…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-01 Vikram Krishnamurthy

Recent crowd counting approaches have achieved excellent performance. However, they are essentially based on fully supervised paradigm and require large number of annotated samples. Obtaining annotations is an expensive and labour-intensive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Vishwanath A. Sindagi , Rajeev Yasarla , Deepak Sam Babu , R. Venkatesh Babu , Vishal M. Patel

There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-30 Emanuele Aliverti , Massimiliano Russo

We developed a single factor model with measure-specific sample weights for multivariate data with multiple observed indicators clustered within a higher level subject. The factor is therefore a latent variable shared by multiple indicators…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-22 Chengan Du , Shu-Xia Li , Zhenqiu Lin , Haiqun Lin

Variable selection in linear models plays a pivotal role in modern statistics. Hard-thresholding methods such as $l_0$ regularization are theoretically ideal but computationally infeasible. In this paper, we propose a new approach, called…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-20 Kun Yang

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Abhra Sarkar , David B. Dunson

Standard linear modeling approaches make potentially simplistic assumptions regarding the structure of categorical effects that may obfuscate more complex relationships governing data. For example, recent work focused on the two-way…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-05 Thomas A. Metzger , Christopher T. Franck

We show that unconverged stochastic gradient descent can be interpreted as a procedure that samples from a nonparametric variational approximate posterior distribution. This distribution is implicitly defined as the transformation of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-07 Dougal Maclaurin , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams

The detection of anomalies is essential mining task for the security and reliability in computer systems. Logs are a common and major data source for anomaly detection methods in almost every computer system. They collect a range of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Sasho Nedelkoski , Jasmin Bogatinovski , Alexander Acker , Jorge Cardoso , Odej Kao

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) is critical in domains such as industrial monitoring, healthcare, and cybersecurity, but it remains challenging due to rare and heterogeneous anomalies and the scarcity of labelled data. This scarcity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Romain Hermary , Samet Hicsonmez , Dan Pineau , Abd El Rahman Shabayek , Djamila Aouada

The lasso has become an important practical tool for high dimensional regression as well as the object of intense theoretical investigation. But despite the availability of efficient algorithms, the lasso remains computationally demanding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-23 Christopher Genovese , Jiashun Jin , Larry Wasserman

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-08 Keisuke Yamazaki

In the realm of statistical exploration, the manipulation of pseudo-random values to discern their impact on data distribution presents a compelling avenue of inquiry. This article investigates the question: Is it possible to add…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Ergon Cugler de Moraes Silva

We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding $L^2$ inner products instead of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-29 Christian Bayer , Martin Redmann , John Schoenmakers