Related papers: Pivotal Quantities with Arbitrary Small Skewness

Some recent work on confidence intervals for randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) sampling found a surprising result: ordinary Student $t$ 95% confidence intervals based on a modest number of replicates were seen to be very effective and…

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has dramatically advanced the state-of-the-art in numerous natural language generation tasks. For LLMs to be applied reliably, it is essential to have an accurate measure of their confidence.…

Probabilistic metrology attempts to improve parameter estimation by occasionally reporting an excellent estimate and the rest of the time either guessing or doing nothing at all. Here we show that probabilistic metrology can never improve…

Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can…

We develop a Monte Carlo-free approach to inference post output from randomized algorithms with a convex loss and a convex penalty. The pivotal statistic based on a truncated law, called the selective pivot, usually lacks closed form…

The asymptotic solution to the problem of comparing the means of two heteroscedastic populations, based on two random samples from the populations, hinges on the pivot underpinning the construction of the confidence interval and the test…

The manuscript discusses how to incorporate random effects for quantile regression models for clustered data with focus on settings with many but small clusters. The paper has three contributions: (i) documenting that existing methods may…

We consider sequences of symmetric $U$-statistics, not necessarily Hoeffding-degenerate, both in a one- and multi-dimensional setting, and prove quantitative central limit theorems (CLTs) based on the use of {\it contraction operators}. Our…

Estimating the prevalence of a category in a population using imperfect measurement devices (diagnostic tests, classifiers, or large language models) is fundamental to science, public health, and online trust and safety. Standard approaches…

The generative large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for data augmentation tasks, where text samples are paraphrased (or generated anew) and then used for classifier fine-tuning. Existing works on augmentation leverage the…

Consider a $N\times n$ random matrix $Y_n=(Y_{ij}^{n})$ where the entries are given by $$ Y_{ij}^{n}=\frac{\sigma_{ij}(n)}{\sqrt{n}} X_{ij}^{n} $$ the $X_{ij}^{n}$ being centered, independent and identically distributed random variables…

The Mean Teacher (MT) model of Tarvainen and Valpola has shown favorable performance on several semi-supervised benchmark datasets. MT maintains a teacher model's weights as the exponential moving average of a student model's weights and…

We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance…

We introduce a new randomization procedure for experiments based on the cube method, which achieves near-exact covariate balance. This ensures compliance with standard balance tests and allows for balancing on many covariates, enabling more…

Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to…

In 2010, Shiffman and Zelditch proved a central limit theorem (CLT) for smooth statistics of Gaussian random zeros in codimension one over compact K\"ahler manifolds. They raised the question of whether this result admits a two-fold…

The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in probability; and establishing its rate of convergence has been a key question since the 1940s. For independent random variables, a series of recent works established…

We prove a central limit theorem (CLT) for the product of a class of random singular matrices related to a random Hill's equation studied by Adams$\unicode{x2013}$Bloch$\unicode{x2013}$Lagarias. The CLT features an explicit formula for the…

Reinforcement learning algorithms have been widely used for decision-making tasks in various domains. However, the performance of these algorithms can be impacted by high variance and instability, particularly in environments with noise or…

Study samples often differ from the target populations of inference and policy decisions in non-random ways. Researchers typically believe that such departures from random sampling -- due to changes in the population over time and space, or…