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Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Sahil Verma , Varich Boonsanong , Minh Hoang , Keegan E. Hines , John P. Dickerson , Chirag Shah

Counterfactual learning is emerging as an important paradigm, rooted in causality, which promises to alleviate common issues of graph neural networks (GNNs), such as fairness and interpretability. However, as in many real-world application…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Dazhuo Qiu , Jinwen Chen , Arijit Khan , Yan Zhao , Francesco Bonchi

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Interpreting the inference-time behavior of deep neural networks remains a challenging problem. Existing approaches to counterfactual explanation typically ask: What is the closest alternative input that would alter the model's prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Brian Hyeongseok Kim , Jacqueline L. Mitchell , Chao Wang

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Nir Rosenfeld , Yishay Mansour , Elad Yom-Tov

Contrastive learning is a popular form of self-supervised learning that encourages augmentations (views) of the same input to have more similar representations compared to augmentations of different inputs. Recent attempts to theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Nikunj Saunshi , Jordan Ash , Surbhi Goel , Dipendra Misra , Cyril Zhang , Sanjeev Arora , Sham Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Saketh Bachu , Saloni Dash , Charchit Sharma , Amit Sharma , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Yulun Wu , Layne C. Price , Zichen Wang , Vassilis N. Ioannidis , Robert A. Barton , George Karypis

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Edward De Brouwer

Unlike traditional supervised learning, in many settings only partial feedback is available. We may only observe outcomes for the chosen actions, but not the counterfactual outcomes associated with other alternatives. Such settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Ruijiang Gao , Max Biggs , Wei Sun , Ligong Han

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Foundation models in healthcare have largely adopted self supervised pretraining objectives inherited from natural language processing and computer vision, emphasizing reconstruction and large scale representation learning prior to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Yang Zhang , Li Fan , Samuel Lawrence , Shi Li

Contrastive pretraining can substantially increase model generalisation and downstream performance. However, the quality of the learned representations is highly dependent on the data augmentation strategy applied to generate positive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Mélanie Roschewitz , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Galvin Khara , Ben Glocker

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Fair machine learning aims to mitigate the biases of model predictions against certain subpopulations regarding sensitive attributes such as race and gender. Among the many existing fairness notions, counterfactual fairness measures the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Jing Ma , Ruocheng Guo , Mengting Wan , Longqi Yang , Aidong Zhang , Jundong Li

Counterfactual inference for continuous rather than binary treatment variables is more common in real-world causal inference tasks. While there are already some sample reweighting methods based on Marginal Structural Model for eliminating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Yonghe Zhao , Qiang Huang , Haolong Zeng , Yun Pen , Huiyan Sun

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva