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This paper proposes a local projection residual bootstrap method to construct confidence intervals for impulse response coefficients of AR(1) models. Our bootstrap method is based on the local projection (LP) approach and involves a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-14 Amilcar Velez

This paper is devoted to studying the averaging principle for fast-slow system of rough differential equations driven by mixed fractional Brownian rough path. The fast component is driven by Brownian motion, while the slow component is…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-15 Bin Pei , Yuzuru Inahama , Yong Xu

Bootstrap is a principled and powerful frequentist statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, standard bootstrap methods are computationally intensive due to the need of drawing a large i.i.d. bootstrap sample to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Mao Ye , Qiang Liu

This paper investigates the accuracy of bootstrap-based inference in the case of long memory fractionally integrated processes. The re-sampling method is based on the semi-parametric sieve approach, whereby the dynamics in the process used…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-08 D. S. Poskitt , Simone D. Grose , Gael M. Martin

We present an iterative sampling method which delivers upper and lower bounding processes for the Brownian path. We develop such processes with particular emphasis on being able to unbiasedly simulate them on a personal computer. The…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-27 Alexandros Beskos , Stefano Peluchetti , Gareth Roberts

We present a Bayesian inference scheme for scaled Brownian motion, and investigate its performance on synthetic data for parameter estimation and model selection in a combined inference with fractional Brownian motion. We include the…

The stochastic motion of a particle with long-range correlated increments (the moving phase) which is intermittently interrupted by immobilizations (the traping phase) in a disordered medium is considered in the presence of an external…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-08-31 Yingjie Liang , Wei Wang , Ralf Metzler

We investigate popular resampling methods for estimating the uncertainty of statistical models, such as subsampling, bootstrap and the jackknife, and their performance in high-dimensional supervised regression tasks. We provide a tight…

We propose a novel procedure for estimating and conducting inference on average marginal effects in partially linear instrumental regressions using Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space methods. Our procedure relies on a single regularization…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-14 Lucas Girard , Elia Lapenta

The existing theory of penalized quantile regression for longitudinal data has focused primarily on point estimation. In this work, we investigate statistical inference. We propose a wild residual bootstrap procedure and show that it is…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-10 Carlos Lamarche , Thomas Parker

This paper introduces a test for fractional integration in a model that possibly contains smooth deterministic trends. We model the trend component using a Chebyshev polynomial and specify the short-run dynamics semi-parametrically,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-27 Mustafa R. Kılınç , Michael Massmann

We consider empirical processes associated with high-frequency observations of a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) $X$ with Hurst parameter $H\in (0,1)$, and derive conditions under which these processes verify a (possibly uniform) law of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-09 Arturo Jaramillo , Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati

We propose a new statistical test to identify non-stationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-08-08 Adrian L. Hauber , Christian Sigloch , Jens Timmer

We develop a weighted Bayesian Bootstrap (WBB) for machine learning and statistics. WBB provides uncertainty quantification by sampling from a high dimensional posterior distribution. WBB is computationally fast and scalable using only…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-06 Michael Newton , Nicholas G. Polson , Jianeng Xu

We revisit the famous Mack's model which gives an estimate for the conditional mean squared error of prediction of the chain-ladder claims reserves. We introduce a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion to model the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Nicolas Baradel

We study well-posedness of sweeping processes with stochastic perturbations generated by a fractional Brownian motion and convergence of associated numerical schemes. To this end, we first prove new existence, uniqueness and approximation…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2015-05-07 Adrian Falkowski , Leszek Slominski

We consider high frequency observations from a fractional Brownian motion. Inspired by the work of Jean Jacod in a diffusion setting, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of various classical statistics related to the local times of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-24 Mark Podolskij , Mathieu Rosenbaum

Based on an optimal rate wavelet series representation, we derive a local modulus of continuity result with a refined almost sure upper bound for fractional Brownian motion. \sloppy The obtained upper bound of the small fractional Brownian…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-20 Qidi Peng , Nan Rao

We study the first-passage time, the distribution of the maximum, and the absorption probability of fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter $H$ with both a linear and a non-linear drift. The latter appears naturally when applying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-12 Maxence Arutkin , Benjamin Walter , Kay Joerg Wiese

Model averaging techniques based on resampling methods (such as bootstrapping or subsampling) have been utilized across many areas of statistics, often with the explicit goal of promoting stability in the resulting output. We provide a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett