English

Testing the order of fractional integration when smooth deterministic trends are possibly present

Econometrics 2026-03-27 v2

Abstract

This paper introduces a test for fractional integration in a model that possibly contains smooth deterministic trends. We model the trend component using a Chebyshev polynomial and specify the short-run dynamics semi-parametrically, accommodating a broad class of possibly nonlinear processes, including those with conditional heteroskedasticity. We use a local Whittle approach for constructing a Lagrange multiplier test statistic and for constructing a frequency-domain information criterion for the selection of the order of the Chebyshev polynomial. We show that widely used time-domain information criteria are generally inconsistent for the true order, whereas our frequency-domain criterion remains robust under both short- and long-memory behaviour. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to the UK Great Ratios support our theoretical findings.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2410.10749,
  title  = {Testing the order of fractional integration when smooth deterministic trends are possibly present},
  author = {Mustafa R. Kılınç and Michael Massmann},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.10749},
  year   = {2026}
}