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The hazard ratio is one of the most commonly reported measures of treatment effect in randomised trials, yet the source of much misinterpretation. This point was made clear by (Hernan, 2010) in commentary, which emphasised that the hazard…
Protecting against cyber-threats is vital for every organization and can be done by investing in cybersecurity controls and purchasing cyber insurance. However, these are interlinked since insurance premiums could be reduced by investing…
Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. DDH and…
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio…
In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the…
We study the efficiency of mechanisms for allocating a divisible resource. Given scalar signals submitted by all users, such a mechanism decides the fraction of the resource that each user will receive and a payment that will be collected…
The main objective of dose finding trials is to find an optimal dose amongst a candidate set for further research. The trial design in oncology proceeds in stages with a decision as to how to treat the next group of patients made at every…
Objective: Recently Doi et al. argued that risk ratios should be replaced with odds ratios in clinical research. We disagreed, and empirically documented the lack of portability of odds ratios, while Doi et al. defended their position. In…
Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large…
When it comes to structural estimation of risk preferences from data on choices, random utility models have long been one of the standard research tools in economics. A recent literature has challenged these models, pointing out some…
In this paper we extend Savage's theory of decision-making under uncertainty from a classical environment into a non-classical one. We formulate the corresponding axioms and provide representation theorems for qualitative measures and…
The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life…
Different models to study the wealth distribution in an artificial society have considered a transactional dynamics as the driving force. Those models include a risk aversion factor, but also a finite probability of favoring the poorer…
The 'expected utility hypothesis' and 'Savage's Sure-Thing Principle' are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the 'Allais' and 'Ellsberg paradoxes'. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely…
This paper applies risk analysis to medical problems, through the properties of nonlinear responses (convex or concave). It shows 1) necessary relations between the nonlinearity of dose-response and the statistical properties of the…
Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e.…
Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to…
Different from shopping at retail stores, consumers on e-commerce platforms usually cannot touch or try products before purchasing, which means that they have to make decisions when they are uncertain about the outcome (e.g., satisfaction…
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over…
All multivariate extensions of the univariate theory of risk measurement run into the same fundamental problem of the absence, in dimension d > 1, of a canonical ordering of Rd. Based on measure transportation ideas, several attempts have…