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The expectile can be considered as a generalization of quantile. While expected shortfall is a quantile based risk measure, we study its counterpart -- the expectile based expected shortfall -- where expectile takes the place of quantile.…
We propose a new class of monetary risk measures for assessing financial and ESG risk. The construction is based on classical shortfall risk measures with loss function replaced by a multi-attribute utility function. We present an extensive…
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk…
Choice overload - in which larger choice sets are detrimental to a chooser's well-being - is potentially of great importance in the design of economic policy. Yet the current evidence on its prevalence is inconclusive. We argue that…
The unit selection problem defined by Li and Pearl identifies individuals who have desired counterfactual behavior patterns, for example, individuals who would respond positively if encouraged and would not otherwise. Li and Pearl showed by…
In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…
We provide a new algorithm for solving Risk Sensitive Partially Observable Markov Decisions Processes, when the risk is modeled by a utility function, and both the state space and the space of observations is finite. This algorithm is based…
We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…
The vast majority of works on option pricing operate on the assumption of risk neutral valuation, and consequently focus on the expected value of option returns, and do not consider risk parameters, such as variance. We show that it is…
Stated choice probabilities are increasingly used in conjunction with the random-coefficient model (RCM) to describe individual preferences. They allow survey respondents to express uncertainty about the future or the incompleteness of a…
An investor's risk aversion is assumed to tend to infinity. In a fairly general setting, we present conditions ensuring that the respective utility indifference prices of a given contingent claim converge to its super replication price.
Ambiguity and ambiguity aversion have been widely studied in decision theory and economics both at a theoretical and an experimental level. After Ellsberg's seminal studies challenging subjective expected utility theory (SEUT), several…
The notion of utility maximising entropy (u-entropy) of a probability density, which was introduced and studied by Slomczynski and Zastawniak (Ann. Prob 32 (2004) 2261-2285, arXiv:math.PR/0410115 v1), is extended in two directions. First,…
In this article, we look at the effect of volatility clustering on the risk indifference price of options described by Sircar and Sturm in their paper (Sircar, R., & Sturm, S. (2012). From smile asymptotics to market risk measures.…
Since its debut in the 18th century, the P-value has been an important part of hypothesis testing-based scientific discoveries. As the statistical engine accelerates, questions are beginning to be raised, asking to what extent scientific…
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…
There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, e.g. absolute versus relative, is often debated because it leads to…
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
A typical power calculation is performed by replacing unknown population-level quantities in the power function with what is observed in external studies. Many authors and practitioners view this as an assumed value of power and offer the…
Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for…