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Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-05-12 Jaydip Sen , Tamal Datta Chaudhuri

While clustering is ubiquitously used across science and industry, uncertainty in cluster assignments is rarely quantified with rigorous guarantees. We propose a novel conformal inference framework for clustering that returns confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 YoonHaeng Hur , Anirban Nath , Genevera Allen

Cluster analysis is used to explore structure in unlabeled data sets in a wide range of applications. An important part of cluster analysis is validating the quality of computationally obtained clusters. A large number of different internal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-10 Masud Moshtaghi , James C. Bezdek , Sarah M. Erfani , Christopher Leckie , James Bailey

Data mining is a popular concept of mined necessary data from a large set of data. Data mining using clustering is a powerful way to analyze data and gives prediction. In this paper non structural time series data is used to forecast daily…

Databases · Computer Science 2015-01-27 Ratul Dey Sanjay Chakraborty Lopamudra Dey

Background: Symbolic models, particularly decision trees, are widely used in software engineering for explainable analytics in defect prediction, configuration tuning, and software quality assessment. Most of these models rely on…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Amirali Rayegan , Tim Menzies

Volatility of financial stock is referring to the degree of uncertainty or risk embedded within a stock's dynamics. Such risk has been received huge amounts of attention from diverse financial researchers. By following the concept of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-25 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

Clustering algorithms aim to organize data into groups or clusters based on the inherent patterns and similarities within the data. They play an important role in today's life, such as in marketing and e-commerce, healthcare, data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Hui Yin , Amir Aryani , Stephen Petrie , Aishwarya Nambissan , Aland Astudillo , Shengyuan Cao

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-28 Tetsuya Takaishi

The increasing adoption of Digital Assets (DAs), such as Bitcoin (BTC), rises the need for accurate option pricing models. Yet, existing methodologies fail to cope with the volatile nature of the emerging DAs. Many models have been proposed…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-28 Danial Saef , Yuanrong Wang , Tomaso Aste

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the market's expected volatility on the SP 500 Index, calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). It is also often referred to as…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-17 Ali Hirsa , Joerg Osterrieder , Branka Hadji Misheva , Wenxin Cao , Yiwen Fu , Hanze Sun , Kin Wai Wong

This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-05 Cristina Chinazzo , Vahidin Jeleskovic

Cluster number is typically a parameter selected at the outset in clustering problems, and while impactful, the choice can often be difficult to justify. Inspired by bioinformatics, this study examines how the nature of clusters varies with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Justin Miller , Tristram Alexander

Time series forecasting has gained lots of attention recently; this is because many real-world phenomena can be modeled as time series. The massive volume of data and recent advancements in the processing power of the computers enable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-01 Manie Tadayon , Yumi Iwashita

We investigate whether sophisticated volatility estimation improves the out-of-sample performance of mean-variance portfolio strategies relative to the naive 1/N strategy. The portfolio strategies rely solely upon second moments. Using a…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-15 Michael Curran , Patrick O'Sullivan , Ryan Zalla

As a typical representation of complex networks studied relatively thoroughly, financial market presents some special details, such as its nonconservation and opinions spreading. In this model, agents congregate to form some clusters, which…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jie Wang , Chun-Xia Yang , Pei-Ling Zhou , Ying-Di Jin , Tao Zhou , Bing-Hong Wang

Clustering points in a vector space or nodes in a graph is a ubiquitous primitive in statistical data analysis, and it is commonly used for exploratory data analysis. In practice, it is often of interest to "refine" or "improve" a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-03 K. Fountoulakis , M. Liu , D. F. Gleich , M. W. Mahoney

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-24 Jaydip Sen , Abhishek Dutta , Sidra Mehtab

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-05 Chen Tang , Han Lin Shang , Yanrong Yang

Recent researches on stock prediction using deep learning methods has been actively studied. This is the task to predict the movement of stock prices in the future based on historical trends. The approach to predicting the movement based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-01 Jaeyoung Cheong , Heejoon Lee , Minjung Kang
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