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Randomization testing is a fundamental method in statistics, enabling inferential tasks such as testing for (conditional) independence of random variables, constructing confidence intervals in semiparametric location models, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Yash Nair , Lucas Janson

We propose LOCO, an algorithm for large-scale ridge regression which distributes the features across workers on a cluster. Important dependencies between variables are preserved using structured random projections which are cheap to compute…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Christina Heinze , Brian McWilliams , Nicolai Meinshausen , Gabriel Krummenacher

Predicting the response at an unobserved location is a fundamental problem in spatial statistics. Given the difficulty in modeling spatial dependence, especially in non-stationary cases, model-based prediction intervals are at risk of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-09 Huiying Mao , Ryan Martin , Brian Reich

Construction of valid statistical inference for estimators based on data-driven selection has received a lot of attention in the recent times. Berk et al. (2013) is possibly the first work to provide valid inference for Gaussian…

Making informed decisions about model adequacy has been an outstanding issue for regression models with discrete outcomes. Standard assessment tools for such outcomes (e.g. deviance residuals) often show a large discrepancy from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Lu Yang

Selective prediction, where a model has the option to abstain from making a decision, is crucial for machine learning applications in which mistakes are costly. In this work, we focus on distributional regression and introduce a framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Ahmed Zaoui , Clément Dombry

This paper develops a method to construct uniform confidence bands for a nonparametric regression function where a predictor variable is subject to a measurement error. We allow for the distribution of the measurement error to be unknown,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Kengo Kato , Yuya Sasaki

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free predictive intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage. However, achieving conditional validity and interval efficiency (in terms of short interval length) remains challenging, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Ran Zou , Wanrong Zhu , Bin Nan

We present a model-agnostic framework for the construction of prediction intervals of insurance claims, with finite sample statistical guarantees, extending the technique of split conformal prediction to the domain of two-stage…

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalisation of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-02-22 Krasymyr Tretiak , Georg Schollmeyer , Scott Ferson

This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Tianmin Xie , Yanfei Zhou , Ziyi Liang , Stefano Favaro , Matteo Sesia

The theory of statistical inference along with the strategy of divide-and-conquer for large- scale data analysis has recently attracted considerable interest due to great popularity of the MapReduce programming paradigm in the Apache Hadoop…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-14 Ling Zhou , Peter X. -K. Song

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yichen Shen , Mengxin Yu

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

We propose a method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation based on partitioning covariate-sorted observations into contiguous bins and using the within-bin empirical CDF as the predictive distribution. Bin boundaries are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Paolo Toccaceli

Conformal prediction is a popular tool for providing valid prediction sets for classification and regression problems, without relying on any distributional assumptions on the data. While the traditional description of conformal prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-11 Chirag Gupta , Arun K. Kuchibhotla , Aaditya K. Ramdas

We present a robust framework to perform linear regression with missing entries in the features. By considering an elliptical data distribution, and specifically a multivariate normal model, we are able to conditionally formulate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-10 Alireza Aghasi , MohammadJavad Feizollahi , Saeed Ghadimi

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Darren Xu , Kuang-Chih Lee

In this paper, we consider a weighted local linear estimator based on the inverse selection probability for nonparametric regression with missing covariates at random. The asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 Li Cai , Lijie Gu , Qihua Wang , Suojin Wang

This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jean-Yves Pitarakis