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This paper explores the effects of simulated moments on the performance of inference methods based on moment inequalities. Commonly used confidence sets for parameters are level sets of criterion functions whose boundary points may depend…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-12 Hiroaki Kaido , Jiaxuan Li , Marc Rysman

Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-11 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

This work introduces a complexity measure which addresses some conflicting issues between existing ones by using a new principle - measuring the average amount of symmetry broken by an object. It attributes low (although different)…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-26 Roberto C. Alamino

Network-theoretic tools contribute to understanding real-world system dynamics, e.g., in wildlife conservation, epidemics, and power outages. Network visualization helps illustrate structural heterogeneity; however, details about…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-09-28 Kehinde R. Salau , Jacopo A. Baggio , Marco A. Janssen , Joshua K. Abbott , Eli P. Fenichel

Measures of discordance between datasets have become an essential part of cosmological analyses. It is important to accurately evaluate the significance of such discordances when present. We propose here a Bayesian interpretation of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-05-12 Weikang Lin , Mustapha Ishak

Robust statistical features have emerged from the microscopic analysis of dense pedestrian flows through a bottleneck, notably with respect to the time gaps between successive passages. We pinpoint the mechanisms at the origin of these…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-14 Alexandre Nicolas , Ioannis Touloupas

A general approach to a broad class of asymptotic problems related to long-time influence of small perturbations, of both deterministic and stochastic type, is presented in the paper. The main characteristic of this influence is a limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-06 Mark Freidlin

We define Persistent Mutual Information (PMI) as the Mutual (Shannon) Information between the past history of a system and its evolution significantly later in the future. This quantifies how much past observations enable long term…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-03-13 R. C. Ball , M. Diakonova , R. S. MacKay

We present a sample path dependent measure of causal influence between two time series. The proposed measure is a random variable whose expected sum is the directed information. A realization of the proposed measure may be used to identify…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-15 Gabriel Schamberg , Todd P. Coleman

Quantum metrology uses small changes in the output probabilities of a quantum measurement to estimate the magnitude of a weak interaction with the system. The sensitivity of this procedure depends on the relation between the input state,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-03-02 Holger F. Hofmann

We investigate different measures of stability of quantum statistical ensembles with respect to local measurements. We call a quantum statistical ensemble "stable" if a small number of local measurements cannot significantly modify the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-02-15 Walter Hahn , Boris V. Fine

In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-07 Thomas Kruse , Judith C. Schneider , Nikolaus Schweizer

The outcomes of a series of measurements, made on a quantum system, form a sequence of random events which occur in a particular order. The system, together with a meter or meters, can be seen as following the paths of a stochastic network…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-08-01 D. Sokolovski

Appealing to several multivariate information measures---some familiar, some new here---we analyze the information embedded in discrete-valued stochastic time series. We dissect the uncertainty of a single observation to demonstrate how the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-05-28 Ryan G. James , Christopher J. Ellison , James P. Crutchfield

This article addresses a modification of local time for stochastic processes, to be referred to as `natural local time'. It is prompted by theoretical developments arising in mathematical treatments of recent experiments and observations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Thilanka Appuhamillage , Vrushali Bokil , Enrique Thomann , Edward Waymire , Brian Wood

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

Determining and measuring cause-effect relationships is fundamental to most scientific studies of natural phenomena. The notion of causation is distinctly different from correlation which only looks at association of trends or patterns in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-22 Aditi Kathpalia , Nithin Nagaraj

We define the empiric stochastic stability of an invariant measure in the finite-time scenario, the classical definition of stochastic stability. We prove that an invariant measure of a continuous system is empirically stochastically stable…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-03-01 Eleonora Catsigeras

A well-interpretable measure of information has been recently proposed based on a partition obtained by intersecting a random sequence with its moving average. The partition yields disjoint sets of the sequence, which are then ranked…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-01 Linda Ponta , Anna Carbone

Multi-time quantum processes are endowed with the same richness as multipartite states, including temporal entanglement and exotic causal structures. However, experimentally probing these rich phenomena leans heavily on fast and clean…