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The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Ross Towe , Jonathan Tawn , Emma Eastoe , Rob Lamb

This paper introduces a novel concept of interval probability measures that enables the representation of imprecise probabilities, or uncertainty, in a natural and coherent manner. Within an algebra of sets, we introduce a notion of weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-06 Marcello Basili , Luca Pratelli

We construct the temporal network using the two-dimensional active particle systems which are described by the Vicsek model. The bursts of the interevent times for a specific pair of particles are investigated numerically. We find that for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-18 Wei Zhong , Youjin Deng , Daxing Xiong

In Basili and Pratelli (2024), a novel and coherent concept of interval probability measures has been introduced, providing a method for representing imprecise probabilities and uncertainty. Within the framework of set algebra, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-25 Marcello Basili , Luca Pratelli

The possibility to study intermittency in a single event of high multiplicity is investigated in the framework of the $\alpha-$model. It is found that, for cascade long enough, the dispersion of intermittency exponents obtained from…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-28 A. Bialas , B. Ziaja

Fractal behavior and long-range dependence have been observed in an astonishing number of physical systems. Either phenomenon has been modeled by self-similar random functions, thereby implying a linear relationship between fractal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 Tilmann Gneiting , Martin Schlather

The paper presents a construction of a quantitative measure of variability for parameter estimates in the data fitting problem under interval uncertainty. It shows the degree of variability and ambiguity of the estimate, and the need for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Sergey P. Shary

The problem to accurately and parsimoniously characterize random series of events (RSEs) present in the Web, such as e-mail conversations or Twitter hashtags, is not trivial. Reports found in the literature reveal two apparent conflicting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-23 Rodrigo A S Alves , Renato Assunção , Pedro O S Vaz de Melo

We present a general framework for a comparative theory of variability measures, with a particular focus on the recently introduced one-parameter families of inter-Expected Shortfall differences and inter-expectile differences, that are…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-05 Fabio Bellini , Tolulope Fadina , Ruodu Wang , Yunran Wei

We discuss how spreading processes on temporal networks are impacted by the shape of their inter-event time distributions. Through simple mathematical arguments and toy examples, we find that the key factor is the ordering in which events…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-15 Renaud Lambiotte , Lionel Tabourier , Jean-Charles Delvenne

We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Patrick Bastian , Tim Kutta , Rupsa Basu , Holger Dette

This article examines the subtle relationship between chaos and randomness, two concepts that, although they refer to seemingly unpredictable phenomenon, are based on fundamentally different principles. Chaos manifests in deterministic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-14 Mohamed El Ouafi , Hajar Ahalli , Abderrahim Aslimani , Kaoutar Lamrini Uahabi

We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-12-04 Yuan Liao , Xiye Yang

Researchers are often interested in examining between-individual differences in within-individual processes. If the process under investigation is tracked for a long time, its trajectory may show a certain degree of nonlinearity, so that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Jin Liu , Robert A. Perera

Recent discussion of the possibility to study intermittency in individual events of high multiplicity by A. Bialas and myself is reported. In the framework of $\alpha-$model it is found that, for a cascade long enough, the dispersion of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 B. Ziaja

The peculiar uncertainty or randomness of quantum measurements stems from coherence, whose information-theoretic characterization is currently under investigation. Under the resource theory of coherence, it is interesting to investigate…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-10-25 Xiao Yuan , Qi Zhao , Davide Girolami , Xiongfeng Ma

We examine a new approach to modeling uncertainty based on plausibility measures, where a plausibility measure just associates with an event its plausibility, an element is some partially ordered set. This approach is easily seen to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Nir Friedman , Joseph Y. Halpern

Temporal correlations of time series or event sequences in natural and social phenomena have been characterized by power-law decaying autocorrelation functions with decaying exponent $\gamma$. Such temporal correlations can be understood in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-12-19 Hang-Hyun Jo

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-28 Nick James , Max Menzies