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In the context of micro-finance, a group of individuals undertake business projects that may interfere with one another. A contagious default happens if one person's project failure leads to the default of another group member. In this…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-01 Héctor Jasso-Fuentes , Alejandra Quintos , Xinta Yang

We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-01-21 Fariba Karimi , Matthias Raddant

This paper addresses estimates of climate risk embedded within a bank credit portfolio. The proposed Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM) adapts well known credit risk models and makes it possible to calculate incremental credit losses on a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-12 Josselin Garnier , Jean-Baptiste Gaudemet , Anne Gruz

We survey systemic risks to financial markets and present a high-level description of an algorithm that measures systemic risk in terms of coupled networks.

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-18 Abhijnan Rej

Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-28 Stefan Thurner , Sebastian Poledna

We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of {\epsilon}-drawdowns to the one of joint {\epsilon}-drawups,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-05 Rahul Kaushik , Stefano Battiston

This paper provides a framework for modeling the financial system with multiple illiquid assets when liquidation of illiquid assets is caused by failure to meet a leverage requirement. This extends the network model of Cifuentes, Shin &…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-17 Zachary Feinstein , Fatena El-Masri

We introduce a class of copulas that we call Principal Component Copulas (PCCs). This class combines the strong points of copula-based techniques with principal component analysis (PCA), which results in flexibility when modelling tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-09 K. B. Gubbels , J. Y. Ypma , C. W. Oosterlee

We use methods from network science to analyze corruption risk in a large administrative dataset of over 4 million public procurement contracts from European Union member states covering the years 2008-2016. By mapping procurement markets…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-20 Johannes Wachs , Mihály Fazekas , János Kertész

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Marco Ioffredi , Stefano Marmi , Matteo Tanzi

This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Guusje Delsing , Michel Mandjes

We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-11-16 Damiano Brigo , Massimo Morini

The replacement closeout convention has drawn more and more attention since the 2008 financial crisis. Compared with the conventional risk-free closeout, the replacement closeout convention incorporates the creditworthiness of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-01 Chaofan Sun , Ken Seng Tan , Wei Wei

In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatility ideally associated with a scenario based underlying firm debt. We show how to…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-12-17 Damiano Brigo , Marco Tarenghi

A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-04-02 Igor Tsatskis

We introduce a decision-making framework tailored for the management of systemic risk in networks. This framework is constructed upon three fundamental components: (1) a set of acceptable network configurations, (2) a set of interventions…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-28 Gregor Svindland , Alexander Voß

This paper presents a new model for pricing financial derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral arrangements adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Tim Xiao

A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put in modeling the contagion…

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-19 B. Podobnik , D. Horvatic , M. Bertella , L. Feng , X. Huang , B. Li

Rapid growth of large loads led by data centers is straining grid capacity. These loads increasingly accept curtailment risk through non-firm interconnection agreements to gain faster grid access, expanding the pool of consumers subject to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Richard Mahuze , Charlotte Gressel , Ali Amadeh , K. Max Zhang