Related papers: Modeling Hurricanes using Principle Component Anal…

Quantification of relations between measured variables of interest by statistical measures of dependence is a common step in analysis of climate data. The term "connectivity" is used in the network context including the study of complex…

Learning causal relationships between variables is a well-studied problem in statistics, with many important applications in science. However, modeling real-world systems remain challenging, as most existing algorithms assume that the…

Storm surge and waves are responsible for a substantial portion of tropical and extratropical cyclones-related damages. While high-fidelity numerical models have significantly advanced the simulation accuracy of storm surge and waves, they…

The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…

Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…

We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations…

Predicting the response of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to random, broadband excitation is important across a range of scientific disciplines, such as structural dynamics and neuroscience. Building data-driven models requires…

Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…

Internet platforms' traffic defines important characteristics of platforms, such as price of services, advertisements, speed of operations. The traffic is usually estimated with the help of the traditional time series models (ARIMA,…

Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…

An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…

Time series and extreme value analyses are two statistical approaches usually applied to study hydrological data. Classical techniques, such as ARIMA models (in the case of mean flow predictions), and parametric generalised extreme value…

The problem of verifying whether a multi-component system has anomalies or not is addressed. Each component can be probed over time in a data-driven manner to obtain noisy observations that indicate whether the selected component is…

We discuss averaged turbulence modeling of multi-scales of length for an incompressible Newtonian fluid, with the help of the maximum information principle. We suppose that there exists a function basis to decompose the turbulent…

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…

Hydrodynamic equations for a one-component plasma are derived as a generalization of the Euler equations to include the effects of the long-range Coulomb interaction. By using a variational principle, these equations self-consistently unify…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…

We study thermodynamical formalism of a discrete nonautonomous dynamical system determined by a sequence of continuous self-maps of a compact metric space. Using the methods of Convex Analysis we get variational principles for pressure…

The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…