Related papers: Modeling Hurricanes using Principle Component Anal…
Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore…
Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…
Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…
We use physical principles to derive a water wheel model under the assumption of an asymmetric water wheel for which the water inflow rate is in general unsteady (modeled by an arbitrary function of time). Our model allows one to recover…
Weather is a dominant external driver of residential electricity demand, but adding many meteorological covariates can inflate model complexity and may even impair accuracy. Selecting appropriate exogenous features is non-trivial and calls…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
Environmental contours are used in structural reliability analysis of marine and coastal structures as an approximate means to locate the boundary of the distribution of environmental variables, and hence sets of environmental conditions…
During hurricanes, coupled wave-circulation models are critical tools for public safety. The standard approach is to use a high fidelity circulation model coupled with a wave model which uses the most advanced source terms. As a result, the…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Not much has been written about the role of triggers in the literature on causal reasoning, causal modeling, or philosophy. In this paper, we focus on describing triggers and causes in the metaphysical sense and on characterizations that…
It is known that a finite-size homogeneous granular fluid develops an hydrodynamic-like instability when dissipation crosses a threshold value. This instability is analyzed in terms of modified hydrodynamic equations: first, a source term…
How physical systems approach hydrodynamic behavior is governed by the decay of nonhydrodynamic modes. Here, we start from a relativistic kinetic theory that encodes relaxation mechanisms governed by different timescales thus sharing…
Complex dynamical systems are notoriously difficult to model because some degrees of freedom (e.g., small scales) may be computationally unresolvable or are incompletely understood, yet they are dynamically important. For example, the small…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for forecasting, risk assessment, and…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…
In this study, the non-potential magnetic field parameters of active region NOAA 9077 are investigated; this AR experienced a super-strong X5.7 solar flare. Using advanced extrapolation techniques, the 3D magnetic field structure from…