Related papers: Modeling Hurricanes using Principle Component Anal…
In this series of papers, an analytical theory for the early stage (tropical storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. In Part I, a linear theory and a nonlinear theory have been formulated. It was found in Part I that the linear…
Preventive control is a crucial strategy for power system operation against impending natural hazards, and its effectiveness fundamentally relies on the realism of scenario generation. While most existing studies employ sequential Monte…
Nonlinear waves are a robust phenomenon observed in complex systems ranging from mechanics to ecology. Fronts are fundamental due to their robustness against perturbations and capacity to propagate one state over another. Controlling and…
Numerous weather parameters affect the occurrence and amount of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to study these parameters and their interdependency. In this paper, different weather and time-related variables -- relative humidity,…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
By resorting to the Burgers model for hurricanes, we study the molecular motion involved in the hurricane dynamics. We show that the Lagrangian canonical formalism requires the inclusion of the environment degrees of freedom. This also…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two…
In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…
Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…
Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the…
The moist-air entropy can be used to analyze and better understand the general circulation of the atmosphere or convective motions. Isentropic analyses are commonly based on studies of different equivalent potential temperatures, all of…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
To enable flexible model coupling in coastal inundation studies, a coupling framework based on ESMF/NUOPC technology under a common modeling framework called the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) was developed. The framework is…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…