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We study two-player constant-sum Bayesian games with type-independent payoffs. Under a "completeness" statistical condition, any "identifiable'" equilibrium is an ex-post equilibrium. We apply this result to a Downsian election in which…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-12-22 Navin Kartik , Francesco Squintani , Katrin Tinn

The design of energy markets is a subject of ongoing debate, particularly concerning the choice between the widely adopted Pay-as-Clear (PC) pricing mechanism and the alternative Pay-as-Bid (PB). These mechanisms determine how energy…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Ioannis Caragiannis , Zhile Jiang , Stratis Skoulakis

Information is replicable in that it can be simultaneously consumed and sold to others. We study how resale affects a decentralized market for information. We show that even if the initial seller is an informational monopolist, she captures…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-12-06 S. Nageeb Ali , Ayal Chen-Zion , Erik Lillethun

We study a Bayesian persuasion setting in which a sender wants to persuade a critical mass of receivers by revealing partial information about the state to them. The homogeneous binary-action receivers are located on a communication…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Toygar T. Kerman , Anastas P. Tenev , Konstantin Zabarnyi

Multi-agent policy-gradient methods have been shown to converge locally near stable Nash equilibria. Local convergence, however, does not determine which equilibrium is reached. We study this question through basin-entry probability with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yevhen Shcherbinin , Arina Redina , Maxim Kalpin , Vlad Kochetov

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-25 Ville A. Satopää , Shane T. Jensen , Robin Pemantle , Lyle H. Ungar

In this paper I discuss truthful equilibria in common agency models. Specifically, I provide general conditions under which truthful equilibria are plausible, easy to calculate and efficient. These conditions generalize similar results in…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-03 Ilias Boultzis

High-stakes auctions are often preceded by nonbinding communication between bidders and the seller. Motivated by these practices, this paper examines a two-period model in which two bidders send private cheap talk messages to the seller…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-19 Eric Yan

We study public persuasion when a sender communicates with a large audience that can fact-check at heterogeneous costs. The sender commits to a public information policy before the state is realized, but any verifiable claim she makes after…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-07 Georgy Lukyanov , Samuel Safaryan

A trade-off between accuracy and fairness is almost taken as a given in the existing literature on fairness in machine learning. Yet, it is not preordained that accuracy should decrease with increased fairness. Novel to this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-14 Sanghamitra Dutta , Dennis Wei , Hazar Yueksel , Pin-Yu Chen , Sijia Liu , Kush R. Varshney

We study a class of finite-action disclosure games in which the sender's preferences are state-independent and the receiver's optimal action depends only on the expected state. While receiver-preferred equilibria in these games involve full…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-06 Denis Shishkin , Maria Titova , Kun Zhang

Machine learning has grown in popularity to help assign resources and make decisions about users, which can result in discrimination. This includes hiring markets, where employers have increasingly been interested in using automated tools…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Serafina Kamp , Benjamin Fish

Machine learning (ML) based approaches are increasingly being used in a number of applications with societal impact. Training ML models often require vast amounts of labeled data, and crowdsourcing is a dominant paradigm for obtaining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Simone Lazier , Saravanan Thirumuruganathan , Hadis Anahideh

We develop a general model of discrete choice that incorporates peer effects in preferences and consideration sets. We characterize the equilibrium behavior and establish conditions under which all parts of the model can be recovered from a…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-05 Nail Kashaev , Natalia Lazzati , Ruli Xiao

We study Markov decision problems where the agent does not know the transition probability function mapping current states and actions to future states. The agent has a prior belief over a set of possible transition functions and updates…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-04 Ignacio Esponda , Demian Pouzo

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

Real-world applications of machine learning tools in high-stakes domains are often regulated to be fair, in the sense that the predicted target should satisfy some quantitative notion of parity with respect to a protected attribute.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Han Zhao , Geoffrey J. Gordon

Research on fairness in machine learning has been recently extended to recommender systems. One of the factors that may impact fairness is bias disparity, the degree to which a group's preferences on various item categories fail to be…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-08-05 Masoud Mansoury , Bamshad Mobasher , Robin Burke , Mykola Pechenizkiy

We investigate a voting scenario with two groups of agents whose preferences depend on a ground truth that cannot be directly observed. The majority's preferences align with the ground truth, while the minorities disagree. Focusing on…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Qishen Han , Grant Schoenebeck , Biaoshuai Tao , Lirong Xia

I propose a cheap-talk model in which the sender can use private messages and only cares about persuading a subset of her audience. For example, a candidate only needs to persuade a majority of the electorate in order to win an election. I…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2019-03-04 Bruno Salcedo