Related papers: Estimating Cross-validatory Predictive P-values wi…
This paper investigates Monte Carlo (MC) methods to estimate probabilities of rare events associated with solutions to the $d$-dimensional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (MV-SDE). MV-SDEs are usually approximated using a…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among cross-validation (CV) variants for machine learning assessment tasks -- e.g., assessing methods' error or variability. But it is expensive to re-fit a model $N$ times…
Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…
Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expression of the sum distribution is usually intractable and presents an open problem. A crude Monte…
We present an importance sampling algorithm that can produce realisations of Markovian epidemic models that exactly match observations, taken to be the number of a single event type over a period of time. The importance sampling can be used…
Standard Importance Sampling (IS) collapses under label corruption because high-norm examples, prioritized for variance reduction, are often adversarial outliers. We formalize this misalignment using an $\varepsilon$-contamination model and…
An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…
We introduce a linear-scaling stochastic method to compute real-space maps of any positive local spectral operator in a tight-binding model. By employing positive-definite estimators, the sampling error at each site can be rigorously…
Test-time alignment of large language models (LLMs) attracts attention because fine-tuning LLMs requires high computational costs. In this paper, we propose a new test-time alignment method called adaptive importance sampling on pre-logits…
The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a deterministic approach to Bayesian inference on latent Gaussian models (LGMs) and focuses on fast and accurate approximation of posterior marginals for the parameters in the models.…
Importance sampling is a popular technique in Bayesian inference: by reweighting samples drawn from a proposal distribution we are able to obtain samples and moment estimates from a Bayesian posterior over latent variables. Recent work,…
The Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters of state-space (dynamical) systems has received considerable attention over the past decade, with a handful of powerful algorithms being introduced. In this paper we tackle the theoretical…
Penalized regression models such as the Lasso have proved useful for variable selection in many fields - especially for situations with high-dimensional data where the numbers of predictors far exceeds the number of observations. These…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…
Bayesian methods have received increasing attention in medical research, where sensitivity analysis of prior distributions is essential. Such analyses typically require the evaluation of the posterior distribution of a parameter under…
Monitoring the performance of classification models in production is critical yet challenging due to strict labeling budgets, one-shot batch acquisition of labels and extremely low error rates. We propose a general framework based on…
In supervised learning for medical image analysis, sample selection methodologies are fundamental to attain optimum system performance promptly and with minimal expert interactions (e.g. label querying in an active learning setup). In this…
Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…
Importance sampling (IS) and numerical integration methods are usually employed for approximating moments of complicated target distributions. In its basic procedure, the IS methodology randomly draws samples from a proposal distribution…