Related papers: Estimating Cross-validatory Predictive P-values wi…
Importance sampling is a common technique for Monte Carlo approximation, including Monte Carlo approximation of p-values. Here it is shown that a simple correction of the usual importance sampling p-values creates valid p-values, meaning…
The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…
The importance sampling (IS) method lies at the core of many Monte Carlo-based techniques. IS allows the approximation of a target probability distribution by drawing samples from a proposal (or importance) distribution, different from the…
Importance sampling (IS) is a widely used simulation method for estimating rare event probabilities. In IS, the relative variance of an estimator is the most common measure of estimator accuracy, and the focus of existing literature is on…
Ratios of normalizing constants for two distributions are needed in both Bayesian statistics, where they are used to compare models, and in statistical physics, where they correspond to differences in free energy. Two approaches have long…
Doubly intractable models are encountered in a number of fields, e.g. social networks, ecology and epidemiology. Inference for such models requires the evaluation of a likelihood function, whose normalising factor depends on the model…
We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite…
Importance sampling (IS) is an important technique to reduce the estimation variance in Monte Carlo simulations. In many practical problems, however, the use of IS method may result in unbounded variance, and thus fail to provide reliable…
Importance Sampling (IS), an effective variance reduction strategy in Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, is frequently utilized for Bayesian inference and other statistical challenges. Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) replaces the random samples in MC…
In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…
Hierarchical Bayesian models can be especially useful in precision medicine settings, where clinicians are interested in estimating the patient-level latent variables associated with an individual's current health state and its trajectory.…
Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…
Importance sampling (IS) is valuable in reducing the variance of Monte Carlo sampling for many areas, including finance, rare event simulation, and Bayesian inference. It is natural and obvious to combine quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods…
Importance sampling (IS) as an elegant and efficient variance reduction (VR) technique for the acceleration of stochastic optimization problems has attracted many researches recently. Unlike commonly adopted stochastic uniform sampling in…
Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted…
Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical…
In groundwater contaminant remediation and risk assessment, it is important to identify parameters of the contaminant source and hydraulic conductivity field by solving an inverse problem. However, if the dimensionality of the inverse…
We consider the parametric learning problem, where the objective of the learner is determined by a parametric loss function. Employing empirical risk minimization with possibly regularization, the inferred parameter vector will be biased…
Building upon score-based learning, new interest in stochastic localization techniques has recently emerged. In these models, one seeks to noise a sample from the data distribution through a stochastic process, called observation process,…