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Practical Bayes filters often assume the state distribution of each time step to be Gaussian for computational tractability, resulting in the so-called Gaussian filters. When facing nonlinear systems, Gaussian filters such as extended…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-17 Wenhan Cao , Tianyi Zhang , Zeju Sun , Chang Liu , Stephen S. -T. Yau , Shengbo Eben Li

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet , Aliaksadr Hubin

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

We propose a practical Bayesian optimization method using Gaussian process regression, of which the marginal likelihood is maximized where the number of model selection steps is guided by a pre-defined threshold. Since Bayesian optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-19 Jungtaek Kim , Seungjin Choi

Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 G. D'Agostini

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

The Bayesian smoothing equations are generally intractable for systems described by nonlinear stochastic differential equations and discrete-time measurements. Gaussian approximations are a computationally efficient way to approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Simo Särkkä , Robert Piché

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

This paper develops an analytical method of truncating inequality constrained Gaussian distributed variables where the constraints are themselves described by Gaussian distributions. Existing truncation methods either assume hard…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-06-08 Andrew W. Palmer , Andrew J. Hill , Steven J. Scheding

This paper presents algorithms for temporal parallelization of Bayesian smoothers. We define the elements and the operators to pose these problems as the solutions to all-prefix-sums operations for which efficient parallel scan-algorithms…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-21 Simo Särkkä , Ángel F. García-Fernández

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

A priori dimension reduction is a widely adopted technique for reducing the computational complexity of stationary inverse problems. In this setting, the solution of an inverse problem is parameterized by a low-dimensional basis that is…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-23 Antti Solonen , Tiangang Cui , Janne Hakkarainen , Youssef Marzouk

In this paper, we propose a progressive Bayesian procedure, where the measurement information is continuously included into the given prior estimate (although we perform observations at discrete time steps). The key idea is to derive a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-04-03 Uwe D. Hanebeck , Jannik Steinbring

In this letter, a new filtering technique to solve a nonlinear state estimation problem has been developed. It is well known that for a nonlinear system, the prior and posterior probability density functions (pdf) are non-Gaussian in…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-03 Kundan Kumar , Shovan Bhaumik

Bayesian filtering is a key tool in many problems that involve the online processing of data, including data assimilation, optimal control, nonlinear tracking and others. Unfortunately, the implementation of filters for nonlinear, possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Utku Erdogan , Gabriel J. Lord , Joaquin Miguez

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-16 Théophile Cantelobre , Carlo Ciliberto , Benjamin Guedj , Alessandro Rudi