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We prove nonasymptotic matrix concentration inequalities for the spectral norm of (sub)gaussian random matrices with centered independent entries that capture fluctuations at the Tracy-Widom scale. This considerably improves previous bounds…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Tatiana Brailovskaya , Ramon van Handel

The top eigenvalues of rank $r$ spiked real Wishart matrices and additively perturbed Gaussian orthogonal ensembles are known to exhibit a phase transition in the large size limit. We show that they have limiting distributions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Alex Bloemendal , Bálint Virág

Kuiper's statistic is a good measure for the difference of ideal distribution and empirical distribution in the goodness-of-fit test. However, it is a challenging problem to solve the critical value and upper tail quantile, or simply Kuiper…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-26 Hong-Yan Zhang , Wei Sun , Xiao Chen , Rui-Jia Lin , Yu Zhou

We compute the stationary in-degree probability, $P_{in}(k)$, for a growing network model with directed edges and arbitrary out-degree probability. In particular, under preferential linking, we find that if the nodes have a light tail…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-10-21 Daniel Fraiman

We study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all index subsets of the set $\{1,...,n\}$ with the probability of a subset $S$ proportional to the determinant of the submatrix $\mathbf{L}_S$ of some $n\times n$ p.s.d. matrix…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-10 Michał Dereziński , Daniele Calandriello , Michal Valko

We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, though unknown, diameter. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-01 Shipra Agrawal , Randy Jia

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

We establish maximal concentration bounds for the iterates generated by stochastic approximation algorithms with general step sizes, where the noise has a finite-state Markovian component plus a Martingale-difference component. When the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Shubhada Agrawal , Siva Theja Maguluri , Martin Zubeldia

We study cluster sizes in supercritical $d$-dimensional inhomogeneous percolation models with long-range edges -- such as long-range percolation -- and/or heavy-tailed degree distributions -- such as geometric inhomogeneous random graphs…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Joost Jorritsma , Júlia Komjáthy , Dieter Mitsche

Let $X_k$ denote the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions in a random subset of $\mathbb{Z}/N\mathbb{Z}$ or $\{1, \dots, N\}$ where every element is included independently with probability $p$. We determine the asymptotics of $\log…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Shirshendu Ganguly , Xuancheng Shao , Yufei Zhao

Let $N$ be the number of triangles in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ on $n$ vertices with edge density $p=d/n,$ where $d>0$ is a fixed constant. It is well known that $N$ weakly converges to the Poisson distribution with mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-15 Shirshendu Ganguly , Ella Hiesmayr , Kyeongsik Nam

This work prepares new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, Hermitian tensors. These probability bounds characterize large-deviation behavior of the extreme eigenvalue of the sums of random tensors. We extend Lapalace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shih Yu Chang

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of supercritical branching Markov processes $\{\mathbb{X}_t, t \ge0\}$ whose spatial motions are L\'evy processes with regularly varying tails. Recently, Ren et al. [Appl. Probab. 61…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Runjia Luo , Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Rui Zhang

This paper presents an improved exponential tail bound for Beta distributions, refining a result in [15]. This improvement is achieved by interpreting their bound as a regular Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence one, while introducing a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Pierre Perrault

We consider extremal processes and random walks generated by heavy-tailed random vectors taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ endowed with the $\ell_p$ metric. We establish limit theorems for the associated paths in the triangular array setting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Bochen Jin , Ilya Molchanov

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-12 Thomas Krak , Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We consider the maximum entropy Markov chain inference approach to characterize the collective statistics of neuronal spike trains, focusing on the statistical properties of the inferred model. We review large deviations techniques useful…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-15 Rodrigo Cofre , Cesar Maldonado , Fernando Rosas

We consider random Schr\"odinger operators of the form $\Delta+\xi$, where $\Delta$ is the lattice Laplacian on $\mathbb Z^d$ and $\xi$ is an i.i.d. random field, and study the extreme order statistics of the eigenvalues for this operator…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-13 Marek Biskup , Wolfgang Koenig

We study the tail behavior of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits for algorithms that are asymptotically optimal in expectation. While minimizing expected regret is the classical objective, recent work shows that even such algorithms…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Subhodip Panda , Shubhada Agrawal