Related papers: Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical ev…
We are interested in describing the infected size of the SIS Epidemic model using Birth-Death Markov process. The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is defined within a population of constant size $M$; the size is kept constant by…
Objective: Cause-of-death distributions are important for prioritising interventions. We estimated proportions, risks, and numbers of deaths (with uncertainty) for programme-relevant causes of neonatal death for 194 countries for 2000-2013,…
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…
Population dynamics reflects an underlying birth-death process, where the rates associated with different events may depend on external environmental conditions and on the population density. A whole family of simple and popular…
Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy at birth in the Netherlands by based on a recent theory and a new methodology but also a classical theory of fitting and forecasting. We use the data from 1850 to 2006 provided by the Human…
The main substance of the paper concerns the growth rate and the classification (ergodicity, transience) of a family of random trees. In the basic model, new edges appear according to a Poisson process of parameter $\lambda$ and leaves can…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
This article presents a comprehensive study of the continuous McKendrick model, which serves as a foundational framework in population dynamics and epidemiology. The model is formulated through partial differential equations that describe…
Birth-death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. In this paper, we derive a large deviation principle under the assumption that the rate of a jump down (death) is growing asymptotically…
Here the term "high frequency" refers to daily, weekly or monthly birth data. The fluctuations of daily birth numbers show a succession of spikes and dips which, at least at first sight, looks almost as random as white noise. However in…
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The…
We demonstrate that the space-time statistics of the birth of turbulent spots in boundary layers can be reconstructed qualitatively from the average behavior of macroscopic measures in the transition zone. The conclusion in \cite{vg04} that…
Life appears to have emerged relatively quickly on the Earth, a fact sometimes used to justify a high rate of spontaneous abiogenesis ($\lambda$) among Earth-like worlds. Conditioned upon a single datum - the time of earliest evidence for…
A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…
For a birth-death process subject to catastrophes, defined on the state-space $S=\{r,r+1,r+2,...\}$, with $r$ a positive integer or zero, the first-visit time to a state $k\in S$ is considered and the Laplace transform of its probability…
Falls affect a growing number of the population each year. Clinical methods to identify those at greatest risk for falls usually evaluate individuals while they perform specific motions such as balancing or Sit-to-Stand (STS). Unfortunately…
Research on the birth and evolution of life are reviewed with reference to the maximum entropy production principle (MEPP). It has been shown that this principle is essential for consistent understanding of the birth and evolution of life.…
In this paper one presents the extension of the transient analysis of the class of continuous-time birth and death processes defined on non-negative integers with special transitions from and to the origin. From the origin transitions can…
Let $\omega=(\omega_i)_{i\in\mathbb Z}=(\mu^{L}_i,...,\mu^{1}_i,\lambda_i)_{i\in \mathbb Z}$, which serves as the environment, be a sequence of i.i.d. random nonnegative vectors, with $L\ge1$ a positive integer. We study birth and death…