Related papers: Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical ev…

After birth setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible…

We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all…

Infant mortality, by which we understand the postnatal stage during which mortality is declining, is a manifestation and embodiment of congenital abnormalities. Severe defects will translate into death occurring shortly after birth whereas…

This manuscript proposes a significant step in our long-run investigation of infant mortality across species. Since 2016 (Berrut et al. 2016) a succession of studies (Bois et al. 2019) have traced infant mortality from organisms of high…

We develop a likelihood-based inference for finite-state birth-death processes with composite birth rates, in which multiple distinct mechanisms contribute additively to the total birth intensity. Our main motivating example is an SIS…

This paper is a continuation of the study on the stability speed for Markov processes. It extends the previous study of the ergodic convergence speed to the non-ergodic one, in which the processes are even allowed to be explosive or having…

Human aging is marked by a steady rise in the risk of dying with age-a process demographers call senescence. Over the past century, life expectancy has risen dramatically, but is this because we are aging slower, or simply starting it…

We finely describe the speed of "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Under general assumptions on the birth and death rates, we firstly determine the behavior of the successive hitting…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of infants per 1000 that do not survive until their first birthday. It is an important metric providing information about infant health but it also measures the society's general health status.…

We investigate the decline of infant mortality in 42 low and middle income countries (LMIC) using detailed micro data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate infant mortality risk for each infant in our data and develop a novel…

We investigate parameter estimation in subcritical continuous-time birth-and-death processes with multiple births. We show that the classical maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters, based on the continuous observation of a…

Biologically, for any organism life does not start at birth but at fertilization of the embryo. Embryonic development is of great importance because it determines congenital anomalies and influences their severity. Whereas there is detailed…

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…

We study two time-changed variants of the birth-death process with catastrophe where the time-changing components are the first hitting times of the stable subordinator and the tempered stable subordinator. For both the processes, we derive…

In part 1 we identified a new coupling between death spikes and birth dips that occurs following catastrophic events such as influenza pandemics and earthquakes. Here we seek to characterize some of the key features. We introduce a transfer…

We finely describe the "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Our biological motivation is to study the decrease of regulated populations which are initially large. Under general…

Infant deaths and old age deaths are very different. The former are mostly due to severe congenital malformations of one or a small number of specific organs. On the contrary, old age deaths are largely the outcome of a long process of…

All schoolchildren know how often they breathe, but even experts don't know exactly why. The aim of this publication is to develop a model of the resting spontaneous breathing rate using physiological, physical and mathematical methods with…

We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…