Related papers: Markov Switching Smooth Transition GARCH Model
The spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is extended by introducing a Markov switching dynamics for the weight matrix and spatial autoregressive parameter. The framework enables the identification of regime-specific connectivity patterns and…
In this paper, we consider the problem of second moment stabilization of a scalar linear plant with process noise. We assume that the sensor must communicate with the controller over an unreliable channel, whose state evolves according to a…
We study a simple Markov chain, the switch chain, on the set of all perfect matchings in a bipartite graph. This Markov chain was proposed by Diaconis, Graham and Holmes as a possible approach to a sampling problem arising in Statistics. We…
Understanding stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants is essential for machine learning. However, most of the preceding analyses are conducted under amenable conditions such as unbiased gradient estimator and bounded objective…
We consider the minimization of an objective function given access to unbiased estimates of its gradient through stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with constant step-size. While the detailed analysis was only performed for quadratic…
Conditions for the existence of strictly stationary multivariate GARCH processes in the so-called BEKK parametrisation, which is the most general form of multivariate GARCH processes typically used in applications, and for their geometric…
In this review-type paper written at the occasion of the Oberwolfach workshop {\em One-sided vs. Two-sided stochastic processes} (february 22-29, 2020), we discuss and compare Markov properties and generalisations thereof in more…
This paper presents a hidden Markov model designed to investigate the complex nature of earnings persistence. The proposed model assumes that the residuals of log-earnings consist of a persistent component and a transitory component, both…
The new class of Markov processes is proposed to realize the flexible shrinkage effects for the dynamic models. The transition density of the new process consists of two penalty functions, similarly to Bayesian fused LASSO in its functional…
This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based…
We establish the existence and uniqueness of quasi-stationary and quasi-ergodic measures for almost surely absorbed discrete-time Markov chains under weak conditions. We obtain our results by exploiting Banach lattice properties of…
Consider a branching Markov process, $X = (X(t), t \ge 0)$, with non-local branching mechanism. Studying the asymptotic behaviour of the moments of X has recently received attention in the literature [6, 7] due to the importance of these…
In this paper we study the problem of testing the null hypothesis that errors from k independent parametrically specified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models have the same distribution versus a general…
Stochastic Gradient Descent with a constant learning rate (constant SGD) simulates a Markov chain with a stationary distribution. With this perspective, we derive several new results. (1) We show that constant SGD can be used as an…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
We study a Markov process with two components: the first component evolves according to one of finitely many underlying Markovian dynamics, with a choice of dynamics that changes at the jump times of the second component. The second…
Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six…
We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…
In this research, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies and severities. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (e.g., roadway segments)…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…