Related papers: Markov Switching Smooth Transition GARCH Model
This paper investigates the role of high-dimensional information sets in the context of Markov switching models with time varying transition probabilities. Markov switching models are commonly employed in empirical macroeconomic research…
Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for…
A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov chain on a finite set and $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed stochastic…
We investigate a solution for the problems related to the application of multivariate GARCH models to markets with a large number of stocks by restricting the form of the conditional covariance matrix. The model is a factor model and uses…
This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…
A Bayesian estimation of a GARCH model is performed for US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal density given by the adaptive construction scheme. In the adaptive construction scheme the…
Improved rates of convergence for ergodic homogeneous Markov chains are studied. In comparison to the earlier papers the setting is also generalised to the case without a unique dominated measure. Examples are provided where the new bound…
In this paper, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (roadway segments) can switch between these…
In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…
This paper proposes a spatial threshold GARCH-type model for dynamic spatio-temporal integer-valued data with network structure. The proposed model can simplify the parameterization by using network structure in data, and can capture the…
We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…
In this paper, we explore a general Aggregated Gradient Langevin Dynamics framework (AGLD) for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We investigate the nonasymptotic convergence of AGLD with a unified analysis for different data…
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods are Bayesian analogs to popular stochastic optimization methods; however, this connection is not well studied. We explore this relationship by applying simulated annealing to an…
We study an irreversible Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on a skew detailed balance condition for an one-dimensional Ising model. Dynamical behavior of the magnetization density is analyzed in order to understand the properties of…
In this paper, we consider the stability analysis of large-scale distributed networked control systems with random communication delays between linearly interconnected subsystems. The stability analysis is performed in the Markov jump…
Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…
This work investigates the effects of using the independent Jeffreys prior for the degrees of freedom parameter of a Student-t model in the asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. To capture…
Gibbs sampling is one of the most commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms due to its simplicity and efficiency. It cycles through the latent variables, sampling each one from its distribution conditional on the current…
We propose a method to construct a proposal density for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations of the GARCH model. The proposal density is constructed adaptively by using the data sampled by the…