Related papers: Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Path…

Unravelling current complex food systems is relevant for their adjustment and redesign under the current changing climate conditions. Redesign may be necessitated by migration of people and changes of locations of major agri-food…

We study the evolution of interest about climate change between different actors of the population, and how the interest of those actors affect one another. We first document the evolution individually, and then provide a model of cross…

Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation…

With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we…

The relationship between inequality and the biosphere has been hypothesized to mutual dependecies and feedbacks. If that is true, such feedbacks may give rise to inequality regimes and potential tipping points between them. Here we explore…

We propose a framework to study tipping points in reaction-diffusion equations (RDEs) in one spatial dimension, where the reaction term decays in space (asymptotically homogeneous) and varies linearly with time (nonautonomous) due to an…

We introduce an epistemic information measure between two data streams, that we term $influence$. Closely related to transfer entropy, the measure must be estimated by epistemic agents with finite memory resources via sampling accessible…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…

We calculate analytically the probabilities for intuitive and counterintuitive transitions in a three-state system, in which two parallel energies are crossed by a third, tilted energy. The state with the tilted energy is coupled to the…

Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of…

Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…

We propose a stylized model of a complex economy to explore the economic tradeoffs imposed by the so called "green transition" -- the shift towards more sustainable production paradigms -- using tools from the Statistical Mechanics of…

Sustainability has over the past two decades emerged as a key concern in human-computer interaction, with a much critiqued focus on quantification and eco-feedback. This approach fits within a modernist framing of sustainability, treating…

Systems that comprise many interacting dynamical networks, such as the human body with its biological networks or the global economic network consisting of regional clusters, often exhibit complicated collective dynamics. To understand the…

High-resolution gridded climate data are readily available from multiple sources, yet climate research and decision-making increasingly require country and region-specific climate information weighted by socio-economic factors. Moreover,…

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring non-trivial dynamics of a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of…

Attribution of climate impacts to natural and anthropogenic source forcings is essential for understanding and addressing climate effects. While standard methods like optimal fingerprinting have been effective for long-term changes, they…

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…

Most methodologies for materials criticality assessment score supply risk and societal importance. Market-based criteria offer quantitative measures for assessment. Here we develop a statistical approach based on a geologic entropy function…