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Precisely estimating out-of-sample upper quantiles is very important in risk assessment and in engineering practice for structural design to prevent a greater disaster. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Yonggwan Shin , Yire Shin , Jihong Park , Jeong-Soo Park

We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Cristian Castiglione , Mauro Bernardi

This paper introduces a general framework for estimating variance components in the linear mixed models via general unbiased estimating equations, which include some well-used estimators such as the restricted maximum likelihood estimator.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-18 Tatsuya Kubokawa , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Hiromasa Tamae , Sanjay Chaudhuri

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-02 Rahul Ghosal , Sujit K. Ghosh

Modeling non-Markovian time series is a recent topic of research in many fields such as climate modeling, biophysics, molecular dynamics, or finance. The generalized Langevin equation (GLE), given naturally by the Mori-Zwanzig projection…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-07-25 Clemens Willers , Oliver Kamps

We develop a version of variational inference for Bayesian count response regression-type models that possesses attractive attributes such as convexity and closed form updates. The convex solution aspect entails numerically stable fitting…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Virginia Murru , Matt P. Wand

Analysts often use data-driven approaches to supplement their substantive knowledge when selecting covariates for causal effect estimation. Multiple variable selection procedures tailored for causal effect estimation have been devised in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-27 Denis Talbot , Claudia Beaudoin

Conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) are versatile deep generative models that extend the standard VAE framework by conditioning the generative model with auxiliary covariates. The original CVAE model assumes that the data samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-03 Siddharth Ramchandran , Gleb Tikhonov , Otto Lönnroth , Pekka Tiikkainen , Harri Lähdesmäki

We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models (McGLMs), designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner Hugo Bonat , Bent Jørgensen

We describe the \proglang{R} package \pkg{glmmrBase} and an extension \pkg{glmmrOptim}. \pkg{glmmrBase} provides a flexible approach to specifying, fitting, and analysing generalised linear mixed models. We use an object-orientated class…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-15 Samuel I. Watson

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are widely used to recover the conditional independence structure among random variables. Recent work has sought to incorporate auxiliary covariates to improve estimation, particularly in applications such…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Ruobin Liu , Guo Yu

We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-16 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

Penalized generalized estimating equations (PGEE) stabilize point estimation for longitudinal binary data under near-separation, but inference still depends on how the sandwich variance is corrected. Existing corrections for PGEE can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Awan Afiaz , M. Shafiqur Rahman

Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation. A common approach is to use predictive distributions from Bayesian or approximation methods and additively decompose uncertainty into aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 H. Martin Gillis , Isaac Xu , Thomas Trappenberg

In practical regression applications, multiple covariates are often measured, but not all may be associated with the response variable. Identifying and including only the relevant covariates in the model is crucial for improving prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Ana Carolina da Cruz , Camila P. E. de Souza , Pedro H. T. O. Sousa

We study model evaluation and model selection from the perspective of generalization ability (GA): the ability of a model to predict outcomes in new samples from the same population. We believe that GA is one way formally to address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Ning Xu , Jian Hong , Timothy C. G. Fisher

The standard regression tree method applied to observations within clusters poses both methodological and implementation challenges. Effectively leveraging these data requires methods that account for both individual-level and sample-level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-05 Jeremiah Allis , Xin Jin , Riddhi Ghosh

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models constitute a widely utilized class of ensemble learning approaches in statistics and machine learning, known for their flexibility and computational efficiency. They have become integral components in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-26 Tuan Thai , TrungTin Nguyen , Dat Do , Nhat Ho , Christopher Drovandi

Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) are a popular and powerful deep generative model. Previous works on VAEs have assumed a factorized likelihood model, whereby the output uncertainty of each pixel is assumed to be independent. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Gara Dorta , Sara Vicente , Lourdes Agapito , Neill D. F. Campbell , Ivor Simpson

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei
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