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Simultaneous inference for high-dimensional non-Gaussian time series is always considered to be a challenging problem. Such tasks require not only robust estimation of the coefficients in the random process, but also deriving limiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-03 Linbo Liu , Danna Zhang

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Robert Lunde , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

In data mining, when binary prediction rules are used to predict a binary outcome, many performance measures are used in a vast array of literature for the purposes of evaluation and comparison. Some examples include classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zheng Yuan , Wenxin Jiang

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jie Yang , Yifan Hu , Kexin Zhang , Luyang Niu , Philip S. Yu , Kaize Ding

Handling missing data in time series is a complex problem due to the presence of temporal dependence. General-purpose imputation methods, while widely used, often distort key statistical properties of the data, such as variance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Guilherme Pumi , Taiane Schaedler Prass , Douglas Krauthein Verdum

Fitting sparse models to high-dimensional time series is an important area of statistical inference. In this paper we consider sparse vector autoregressive models and develop appropriate bootstrap methods to infer properties of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-25 J. Krampe , J-P. Kreiss , E. Paparoditis

We provide a review of recent developments in the calculation of standard errors and test statistics for statistical inference. While much of the focus of the last two decades in economics has been on generating unbiased coefficients,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-04 Jeffrey D. Michler , Anna Josephson

We study an AMOC time series model with an abrupt change in the mean and dependent errors that fulfill certain mixing conditions. We obtain confidence intervals for the unknown change-point via bootstrapping methods. Precisely we use a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-30 Marie Huskova , Claudia Kirch

The problem of machine learning with missing values is common in many areas. A simple approach is to first construct a dataset without missing values simply by discarding instances with missing entries or by imputing a fixed value for each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-02 Hiroyuki Hanada , Toshiyuki Takada , Jun Sakuma , Ichiro Takeuchi

Inference and testing in general point process models such as the Hawkes model is predominantly based on asymptotic approximations for likelihood-based estimators and tests. As an alternative, and to improve finite sample performance, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-22 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Ye Lu , Anders Rahbek , Jacob Stærk-Østergaard

Incomplete observability of data generates an identification problem. There is no panacea for missing data. What one can learn about a population parameter depends on the assumptions one finds credible to maintain. The credibility of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-17 Charles F. Manski

Mediation analysis is a form of causal inference that investigates indirect effects and causal mechanisms. Confidence intervals for indirect effects play a central role in conducting inference. The problem is non-standard leading to…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Kees Jan van Garderen , Noud van Giersbergen

The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

Although data may be abundant, complete data is less so, due to missing columns or rows. This missingness undermines the performance of downstream data products that either omit incomplete cases or create derived completed data for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Haw-minn Lu , Giancarlo Perrone , José Unpingco

Multivariate density estimation is a popular technique in statistics with wide applications including regression models allowing for heteroskedasticity in conditional variances. The estimation problems become more challenging when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-15 Zhen Li , Lili Wu , Weilian Zhou , Sujit Ghosh

Kernel methods are widely used in causal inference for tasks such as treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, and policy learning. The bootstrap is a standard tool for uncertainty quantification because of its broad applicability. As…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Matthew Kosko , Falco J , Bargagli-Stoffi , Lin Wang , Michele Santacatterina

Many online experiments exhibit dependence between users and items. For example, in online advertising, observations that have a user or an ad in common are likely to be associated. Because of this, even in experiments involving millions of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Eytan Bakshy , Dean Eckles

Gaussian Mixture models (GMMs) are a powerful tool for clustering, classification and density estimation when clustering structures are embedded in the data. The presence of missing values can largely impact the GMMs estimation process,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Alessio Serafini , Thomas Brendan Murphy , Luca Scrucca

Recent advances in wearable technology have enabled the continuous monitoring of vital physiological signals, essential for predictive modeling and early detection of extreme physiological events. Among these physiological signals, heart…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-13 Vaibhav Gupta , Maria Maleshkova

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng