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The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , David A. Levin , Yuval Peres , Csaba Szepesvári

The appropriate selection of recurrence thresholds is a key problem in applications of recurrence quantification analysis and related methods across disciplines. Here, we discuss the distribution of pairwise distances between state vectors…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-02-19 K. Hauke Kraemer , Reik V. Donner , Jobst Heitzig , Norbert Marwan

We introduce the concept of a Markov influence system (MIS) and analyze its dynamics. An MIS models a random walk in a graph whose edges and transition probabilities change endogenously as a function of the current distribution. This…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-03-28 Bernard Chazelle

Scaled type Markov renewal processes generalize classical renewal processes: renewal times come from a one parameter family of probability laws and the sequence of the parameters is the trajectory of an ergodic Markov chain. Our primary…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Zsolt Pajor-Gyulai , Domokos Szász

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

Recurrent temporal dynamics is a phenomenon observed frequently in high-dimensional complex systems and its detection is a challenging task. Recurrence quantification analysis utilizing recurrence plots may extract such dynamics, however it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-06-22 Peter beim Graben , Kristin K. Sellers , Flavio Fröhlich , Axel Hutt

In this paper we are concerned with hitting times of a family of density-dependent Markov chains. A moderate deviation principle of the hitting time is given. The proof of the main theorem relies heavily on moderate deviations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-15 Yuheng He , Xiaofeng Xue

We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-20 Damjan Škulj

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

This work develops a powerful and versatile framework for determining acceptance ratios in Metropolis-Hastings type Markov kernels widely used in statistical sampling problems. Our approach allows us to derive new classes of kernels which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nathan E. Glatt-Holtz , Justin A. Krometis , Cecilia F. Mondaini

It is known that random walk Metropolis algorithms with heavy-tailed target densities can model atypical (slow) growth of maxima, which in general is exhibited by processes with the extremal index zero. The asymptotics of maxima of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-09 Adam Jakubowski , Patryk Truszczyński

In this paper, we consider a general class of two-time-scale Markov chains whose transition rate matrix depends on a parameter $\lambda>0$. We assume that some transition rates of the Markov chain will tend to infinity as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-10 Chen Jia

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

This work introduces a notion of approximate probabilistic trace equivalence for labelled Markov chains, and relates this new concept to the known notion of approximate probabilistic bisimulation. In particular this work shows that the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-04-28 Gaoang Bian , Alessandro Abate

In this paper, we are interested in investigating the perturbation bounds for the stationary distributions for discrete-time or continuous-time Markov chains on a countable state space. For discrete-time Markov chains, two new norm-wise…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-27 Yuanyuan Liu

In this paper, we study the asymptotic variance of sample path averages for inhomogeneous Markov chains that evolve alternatingly according to two different $\pi$-reversible Markov transition kernels $P$ and $Q$. More specifically, our main…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-15 Florian Maire , Randal Douc , Jimmy Olsson

We investigate the impact on survival of a modification of the evolution of a sub-stochastic Markov chain that involves random relocations at previously visited states. Our central result is that such preferential relocations increase the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Jean Bertoin , Martin Minchev

We examine two analytical characterisation of the metastable behavior of a Markov chain. The first one expressed in terms of its transition probabilities, and the second one in terms of its large deviations rate functional. Consider a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-07 L. Bertini , D. Gabrielli , C. Landim

In this paper, a simple transient Markov process with an absorbing point is used to investigate the qualitative behavior of a large scale storage network of non reliable file servers where files can be duplicated. When the size of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-02 Mathieu Feuillet , Philippe Robert