Related papers: Value-at-Risk and backtesting with the APARCH mode…
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…
Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…
The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and…
Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…
We propose a distributional framework for benchmarking socio-technical risks of foundation models with quantified statistical significance. Our approach hinges on a new statistical relative testing based on first and second order stochastic…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
This paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogorov--Smirnov test based on the…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…
Assuming an exponential power distribution is one way to deal with outliers in regression and clustering, which can increase the robustness of the analysis. Gaussian distribution is a special case of an exponential distribution. And an…
Accelerated life tests (ALTs) play a crucial role in reliability analyses, providing lifetime estimates of highly reliable products. Among ALTs, step-stress design increases the stress level at predefined times, while maintaining a constant…
Most risk analysis models systematically underestimate the probability and impact of catastrophic events (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, and terrorism) by not taking into account interconnectivity and interdependence of risks. To…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
The modeling of high-frequency data that qualify financial asset transactions has been an area of relevant interest among statisticians and econometricians -- above all, the analysis of time series of financial durations. Autoregressive…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
Under the framework of dynamic conditional score, we propose a parametric forecasting model for Value-at-Risk based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (Hereinafter NIG-DCS-VaR), which creatively incorporates intraday information…
This paper proposes an innovative threshold measurement equation to be employed in a Realized-GARCH framework. The proposed framework incorporates a nonlinear threshold regression specification to consider the leverage effect and model the…
Overparameterized models that achieve zero training error are observed to generalize well on average, but degrade in performance when faced with data that is under-represented in the training sample. In this work, we study an…