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This paper considers the problem of design-based inference for the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments. Here, by "design-based'' we mean that the only source of uncertainty stems from the randomness in treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-08 Yuehao Bai , Xun Huang , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

The hybrid approach to experimental design aims to control frequentist operating characteristics of Bayesian decision procedures. These operating characteristics are assessed by simulating sampling distributions of posterior summaries under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Luke Hagar , James M. McGree

Self-supervised representation learning on image-text data facilitates crucial medical applications, such as image classification, visual grounding, and cross-modal retrieval. One common approach involves contrasting semantically similar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Peiqi Wang , Yingcheng Liu , Ching-Yun Ko , William M. Wells , Seth Berkowitz , Steven Horng , Polina Golland

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-24 Zhen Liu , Xiaoqian Sun , Leping Liu , Yu-Bo Wang

In the past two decades, psychological science has experienced an unprecedented replicability crisis which uncovered several issues. Among others, statistical inference is too often viewed as an isolated procedure limited to the analysis of…

In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-23 Giulio D'Agostini , Alfredo Esposito

We consider planning longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations and study how a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Jaakko Reinikainen , Juha Karvanen

Statistical matching methods are widely used in the social and health sciences to estimate causal effects using observational data. Often the objective is to find comparable groups with similar covariate distributions in a dataset, with the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-19 Felix Bestehorn , Maike Bestehorn , Christian Kirches

This work is motivated by learning the individualized minimal clinically important difference, a vital concept to assess clinical importance in various biomedical studies. We formulate the scientific question into a high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-28 Huijie Feng , Jingyi Duan , Yang Ning , Jiwei Zhao

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-12 Steve Thompson

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

Finding patient subgroups with similar characteristics is crucial for personalized decision-making in various disciplines such as healthcare and policy evaluation. While most existing approaches rely on unsupervised clustering methods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-06 Luwei Wang , Nazir Lone , Sohan Seth

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

Justification bias, wherein retirees may report poorer health to rationalize their retirement, poses a major concern to the widely-used measure of self-assessed health in retirement studies. This paper introduces a novel method for testing…

General Economics · Economics 2024-03-12 Jiayi Wen , Zixi Ye , Xuan Zhang

We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-28 Lucas Böttcher , Maria R. D'Orsogna , Tom Chou

In the analysis of complex, nonlinear time series, scientists in a variety of disciplines have relied on a time delayed embedding of their data, i.e. attractor reconstruction. The process has focused primarily on heuristic and empirical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-26 Louis M. Pecora , Linda Moniz , Jonathan Nichols , Thomas L. Carroll

With the advancement of precision medicine there is an increasing need for design and analysis methods in clinical trials with the objective of investigating effect heterogeneity and estimating subgroup effects. As this requires precise…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Shirin Golchi , Satoshi Morita

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Ho Chung Leon Law , Danica J. Sutherland , Dino Sejdinovic , Seth Flaxman

We develop a new approach for quantifying uncertainty in finite populations, by using design distributions to calibrate sensitivity parameters in finite population identified sets. This yields uncertainty intervals that can be interpreted…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Brendan Kline , Matthew A. Masten

Classification is an important task in many fields including biomedical research and machine learning. Traditionally, a classification rule is constructed based a bunch of labeled data. Recently, due to technological innovation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Jing Wang , Eunsik Park , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang