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We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 T. Butler , J. D. Jakeman , T. Wildey

We consider the problem of assessing goodness of fit of a single Bayesian model to the observed data in the inverse problem context. A novel procedure of goodness of fit test is proposed, based on construction of reference distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Terrance D. Savitsky , Daniell Toth

Gathering observational data for medical decision-making often involves uncertainties arising from both type I (false positive)and type II (false negative) errors. In this work, we develop a statistical model to study how medical…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-21 Lucas Böttcher , Maria R. D'Orsogna , Tom Chou

We consider the problem of goodness-of-fit testing for a model that has at least one unknown parameter that cannot be eliminated by transformation. Examples of such problems can be as simple as testing whether a sample consists of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Sean van der Merwe

To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-17 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

There is growing interest in Bayesian clinical trial designs with informative prior distributions, e.g. for extrapolation of adult data to pediatrics, or use of external controls. While the classical type I error is commonly used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-06 Nicky Best , Maxine Ajimi , Beat Neuenschwander , Gaelle Saint-Hilary , Simon Wandel

Single subject or n-of-1 research designs have been widely used to evaluate treatment interventions. Many statistical procedures such as split-middle trend lines, regression trend line, Shewart-chart trend line, binomial tests,…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-18 A. Savenkov , S. Wu , D. Neal

An innovative sampling strategy is proposed, which applies to large-scale population-based surveys targeting a rare trait that is unevenly spread over a geographical area of interest. Our proposal is characterised by the ability to tailor…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Fulvia Mecatti , Charalambos Sismanidis , Emanuela Furfaro

Data dispersed across multiple files are commonly integrated through probabilistic linkage methods, where even minimal error rates in record matching can significantly contaminate subsequent statistical analyses. In regression problems, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Abhisek Chakraborty , Saptati Datta

Prior probabilities of clinical hypotheses are not systematically used for clinical trial design yet, due to a concern that poor priors may lead to poor decisions. To address this concern, a conservative approach to Bayesian trial design is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-21 Fabio Rigat

The membership inference problem for publicly released statistics from a private dataset is well-studied. When developing and formally analyzing attack strategies, however, the focus has been on attacks that model the population using only…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Lisa Oakley , Sam Stites , Cameron Moy , Steven Holtzen , Alina Oprea , Marco Gaboardi

We study the problem of selecting limited features to observe such that models trained on them can perform well simultaneously across multiple subpopulations. This problem has applications in settings where collecting each feature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Maitreyi Swaroop , Tamar Krishnamurti , Bryan Wilder

Tests of goodness of fit are used in nearly every domain where statistics is applied. One powerful and flexible approach is to sample artificial data sets that are exchangeable with the real data under the null hypothesis (but not under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ritwik Bhaduri , Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber , Lucas Janson

Scoring models support decision-making in financial institutions. Their estimation and evaluation are based on the data of previously accepted applicants with known repayment behavior. This creates sampling bias: the available labeled data…

Concerns over reproducibility in science extend to research using existing healthcare data; many observational studies investigating the same topic produce conflicting results, even when using the same data. To address this problem, we…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-30 Martijn J. Schuemie , Patrick B. Ryan , George Hripcsak , David Madigan , Marc A. Suchard

Trial-based economic evaluations are typically performed on cross-sectional variables, derived from the responses for only the completers in the study, using methods that ignore the complexities of utility and cost data (e.g. skewness and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-21 Andrea Gabrio , Michael J. Daniels , Gianluca Baio

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

In real world applications dealing with compositional datasets, it is easy to face the presence of structural zeros. The latter arise when, due to physical limitations, one or more variables are intrinsically zero for a subset of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Francesco Porro , Fabio Rapallo , Sara Sommariva

The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical…