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Related papers: Optimizing Real-Time Vaccine Allocation in a Stoch…

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The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-07-26 Hannah Scanlon , John Gemmer

We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Michael Bestehorn , Thomas M. Michelitsch , Bernard A. Collet , Alejandro P. Riascos , Andrzej F. Nowakowski

Efficient testing and vaccination protocols are critical aspects of epidemic management. To study the optimal allocation of limited testing and vaccination resources in a heterogeneous contact network of interacting susceptible, recovered,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-12 Mingtao Xia , Lucas Böttcher , Tom Chou

Balancing social utility and equity in distributing limited vaccines represents a critical policy concern for protecting against the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. What is the nature of the trade-off between maximizing collective welfare and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Lin Chen , Fengli Xu , Zhenyu Han , Kun Tang , Pan Hui , James Evans , Yong Li

Infectious diseases pose major public health challenges to society, highlighting the importance of designing effective policies to reduce economic loss and mortality. In this paper, we propose a framework for sequential decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Zhuangzhuang Jia , Hyuk Park , Gökçe Dayanıklı , Grani A. Hanasusanto

Timely and effective decision-making is critical during epidemics to reduce preventable infections and deaths. This demands integrated models that jointly capture disease dynamics, vaccine distribution, regional disparities, and behavioral…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Kimiya Jozani , Nihal A. Sageer , Hode Eldardiry , Sait Tunc , Esra Buyuktahtakin Toy

Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-19 Eyal Atias , Michael Assaf

We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-25 Arthur Charpentier , Romuald Elie , Mathieu Laurière , Viet Chi Tran

Spreading processes represent a very efficient tool to investigate the structural properties of networks and the relative importance of their constituents, and have been widely used to this aim in static networks. Here we consider simple…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-11 Michele Starnini , Anna Machens , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat , Romualdo Pastor Satorras

We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-04 Andrew Lesniewski

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-05-14 Joel Miller , Bahman Davoudi , Rafael Meza , Anja Slim , Babak Pourbohloul

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal SEIQR epidemic model governed by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations that incorporates optimal control strategies. The model captures the transmission dynamics of an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Achraf Zinihi , Matthias Ehrhardt , Moulay Rchid Sidi Ammi

A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , Peter Neal

In this paper, we propose a two-group SIR epidemic model to simulate the outcome of stay-at-home policy and wearing face masks during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in the United States. Based on our proposed model, we further use the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-11 Jun Liu , Xiang-Sheng Wang

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…

We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2007-05-23 Henryk Fukś , Ryan Duchesne , Anna T. Lawniczak

Early on during a pandemic, vaccine availability is limited, requiring prioritisation of different population groups. Evaluating vaccine allocation is therefore a crucial element of pandemics response. In the present work, we develop a…

Nosocomial infection raises a serious public health problem, as implied by the existence of pathogens characteristic to healthcare and hospital-mediated outbreaks of influenza and SARS. We simulate stochastic SIR dynamics on social…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-10-19 Taro Ueno , Naoki Masuda

This work focuses on optimal controls of a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models under regime switching. By assuming that a decision maker can either influence the infectivity period or isolate infected individuals, our aim is to minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Ky Tran , George Yin

Background: Network-based interventions are most powerful against epidemics when the full network structure is known. However, resource constraints often require decisions based on partial network data. We investigated how the effectiveness…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-30 Yingrui Yang , Ashley McKhann , Guy Harling , Jukka-Pekka Onnela