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Parameter learning is the technique for obtaining the probabilistic parameters in conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks from tables with (observed) data --- where it is assumed that the underlying graphical structure is known.…
We introduce a linear-scaling stochastic method to compute real-space maps of any positive local spectral operator in a tight-binding model. By employing positive-definite estimators, the sampling error at each site can be rigorously…
Oftentimes in practice, the observed process changes statistical properties at an unknown point in time and the duration of a change is substantially finite, in which case one says that the change is intermittent or transient. We provide an…
We study the task of conducting structured reasoning as generating a reasoning graph from natural language input using large language models (LLMs). Previous approaches have explored various prompting schemes, yet they suffer from error…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a popular model for performance analysis and optimization of stochastic systems. The parameters of stochastic behavior of MDPs are estimates from empirical observations of a system; their values are not…
The problem of estimating the parameters of a linear regression model $Z(s,t)=m_1g_1(s,t)+ \cdots + m_pg_p(s,t)+U(s,t)$ based on observations of $Z$ on a spatial domain $G$ of special shape is considered, where the driving process $U$ is a…
Estimating the parameters of a probabilistic directed graphical model from incomplete data is a long-standing challenge. This is because, in the presence of latent variables, both the likelihood function and posterior distribution are…
The (non-)equivalence of canonical and microcanonical ensembles is a fundamental question in statistical physics, concerning whether the use of soft and hard constraints in the maximum-entropy construction leads to the same description of a…
The local Markov condition for a DAG to be an independence map of a probability distribution is well known. For DAGs with latent variables, represented as bi-directed edges in the graph, the local Markov property may invoke exponential…
We introduce Projected Latent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PL-MCMC), a technique for sampling from the high-dimensional conditional distributions learned by a normalizing flow. We prove that a Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC…
We present an exclusion process based approach for sampling densest $k$-sub-graphs from regular graphs $L$ with connected complement. By interpreting an exclusion process as a Markov chain on a corresponding Token Graph $\mathfrak{L}_k$, we…
This paper studies the estimation of low-rank Markov chains from empirical trajectories. We propose a non-convex estimator based on rank-constrained likelihood maximization. Statistical upper bounds are provided for the Kullback-Leiber…
Quantitative studies in many fields involve the analysis of multivariate data of diverse types, including measurements that we may consider binary, ordinal and continuous. One approach to the analysis of such mixed data is to use a copula…
This paper considers the average complexity of maximum likelihood (ML) decoding of convolutional codes. ML decoding can be modeled as finding the most probable path taken through a Markov graph. Integrated with the Viterbi algorithm (VA),…
Many real-world phenomena can be modelled as dynamical processes on networks, a prominent example being the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Mean-field approximations are a widely used tool to analyse such dynamical processes…
We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…
Linear birth-and-death processes (LBDPs) are foundational stochastic models in population dynamics, evolutionary biology, and hematopoiesis. Estimating parameters from discretely observed data is computationally demanding due to irregular…
Graphs are widely used for describing systems made up of many interacting components and for understanding the structure of their interactions. Various statistical models exist, which describe this structure as the result of a combination…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…
Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We…