Related papers: Bayesian stochastic volatility models for high-fre…

In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain…

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

Stochastic volatility models based on Gaussian processes, like fractional Brownian motion, are able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial markets such as rich autocorrelation structures, persistence and roughness of sample…

We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting…

We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…

We develop Bayesian models for density regression with emphasis on discrete outcomes. The problem of density regression is approached by considering methods for multivariate density estimation of mixed scale variables, and obtaining…

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

We propose a simple stochastic volatility model which is analytically tractable, very easy to simulate and which captures some relevant stylized facts of financial assets, including scaling properties. In particular, the model displays a…

We investigate a stochastic version of the synthetic multicellular clock model proposed by Garcia-Ojalvo, Elowitz and Strogatz. By introducing dynamical noise in the model and assuming that the partial observations of the system can be…

This article presents a Bayesian inferential method where the likelihood for a model is unknown but where data can easily be simulated from the model. We discretize simulated (continuous) data to estimate the implicit likelihood in a…

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…

We consider the problem of estimating stochastic volatility for a class of second-order parabolic stochastic PDEs. Assuming that the solution is observed at a high temporal frequency, we use limit theorems for multipower variations and…

We propose how to quantify high-frequency market sentiment using high-frequency news from NASDAQ news platform and support vector machine classifiers. News arrive at markets randomly and the resulting news sentiment behaves like a…

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…

In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalised shrinkage technique…

We study the volatility of the MIB30-stock-index high-frequency data from November 28, 1994 through September 15, 1995. Our aim is to empirically characterize the volatility random walk in the framework of continuous-time finance. To this…