Related papers: Chaos in Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autor…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
We propose a mechanism which produces periodic variations of the degree of predictability in dynamical systems. It is shown that even in the absence of noise when the control parameter changes periodically in time, below and above the…
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…
This paper introduces the Fractal-Chaotic Oscillation Co-driven (FCOC) framework, a novel paradigm for financial volatility forecasting that systematically resolves the dual challenges of feature fidelity and model responsiveness. FCOC…
We extend the Pyragas time-delayed feedback control (TDFC) to apply it to random dynamical systems and introduce an extended classification based on Lyapunov exponents and trajectory fluctuations. We demonstrate the applicability of this…
We propose a stochastic sampling approach to identify stability boundaries in general dynamical systems. The global landscape of Lyapunov exponent in multi-dimensional parameter space provides transition boundaries for stable/unstable…
We propose a continuous-time Markov-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (COMS-GARCH) process for handling irregularly spaced time series (TS) with multiple volatilities states. We employ a Gibbs sampler in…
Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…
An analysis of transition from chaotic to nonchaotic behavior and synchronization in an ensemble of systems driven by identical random forces is presented. The synchronization phenomenon is investigated in the ensemble of particles moving…
The Lyapounov exponent and sharp conditions for geometric ergodicity are determined of a time series model with both a threshold autoregression term and threshold autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors. The conditions…
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
In this paper we study the simple semi-L\'evy driven continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (SS-COGARCH) process. The statistical properties of this process are characterized. This process has the potential…
The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…
Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…
The dynamics of extended many-body systems are generically chaotic. Classically, a hallmark of chaos is the exponential sensitivity to initial conditions captured by positive Lyapunov exponents. Supplementing chaotic dynamics with…
A new type of deterministic chaos for a system described by iterative two-dimensional maps is reported. The series being generated by the original map has an average upward trend while the first difference, which is the series of changes…
This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model…
We investigate a transition from chaotic to nonchaotic behavior and synchronization in an ensemble of systems driven by identical random forces. We analyze the synchronization phenomenon in the ensemble of particles moving with friction in…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…
Constraints are found on the spatial variation of finite-time Lyapunov exponents of two and three-dimensional systems of ordinary differential equations. In a chaotic system, finite-time Lyapunov exponents describe the average rate of…