Related papers: Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?
The concepts of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population are central to the study of political science and economics. However, a growing literature suggests that existing measures of these concepts contain considerable…
In this review article we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries…
Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…
We present a model of an economy inspired by individual based model approaches in evolutionary ecology. We demonstrate that evolutionary dynamics in a space of companies interconnected through a correlated interaction matrix produces time…
The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…
Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of a given quantity is proportional to the quantity's current value. Surprisingly, when exponential growth data is plotted as a simple histogram disregarding the time dimension, a remarkable…
Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying…
Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates to function properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasing evidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises, these growth…
Branching processes are classical growth models in cell kinetics. In their construction, it is usually assumed that cell lifetimes are independent random variables, which has been proved false in experiments. Models of dependent lifetimes…
This paper extends Xing's (2023abcd) optimal growth models of catching-up economies from the case of production function switching to that of economic structure switching and argues how a country develops its economy by endogenous…
In the past many papers have appeared which simulated surface growth with different growth models. The results showed that, if models differed only slightly in their `growth' rules, the resulting surfaces may belong to different…
I explore the concept of growth being rooted in the recombination of existing technology as an explanation for the remarkable growth witnessed during the Industrial Revolution as it was recently proposed by Koppl et al.(2023). I adapt their…
The twentieth century was a period of outstanding economic growth together with an unequal income distribution. This paper analyses the international distribution of growth rates and its dynamics during the twentieth century. We show that…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
The accumulation of knowledge required to produce economic value is a process that often relates to nations economic growth. Such a relationship, however, is misleading when the proxy of such accumulation is the average years of education.…
We consider growth conditions for (frequently) Birkhoff-universal functions of exponential type with respect to the different rays emanating from the origin. For that purpose, we investigate their (conjugate) indicator diagram or,…
We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a…
Historical economic growth in Western and Eastern Europe is analysed. These regions should have produced the best and the most convincing confirmation of the Unified Growth Theory because they, and in particular Western Europe, were the…