Related papers: Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?
Modern foundation models often undergo iterative ``bootstrapping'' in their post-training phase: a model generates synthetic data, an external verifier filters out low-quality samples, and the high-quality subset is used for further…
Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…
Rapidly increasing AI capabilities have substantial real-world consequences, ranging from AI safety concerns to labor market consequences. The Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) report argues that AI capabilities have exhibited…
This paper aims to study the impact of public and private investments on the economic growth of developing countries. The study uses the panel data of 39 developing countries covering the periods 1990-2019. The study was based on the…
Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process through stylised return…
We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions.…
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income…
Economic growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, countries of the former USSR, Africa and Latin America were analysed. It is demonstrated that the fundamental postulate of the Unified Growth Theory about the existence of the three…
We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition…
In the preceding paper we presented empirical results describing the growth of publicly-traded United States manufacturing firms within the years 1974--1993. Our results suggest that the data can be described by a scaling approach. Here, we…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…
We present a survey of results related to the Milnor's problem on group growth. We discuss the cases of polynomial growth, exponential but not uniformly exponential growth, but the main part of the article is devoted to the intermediate…
The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
Entrepreneurship is often touted for its ability to generate economic growth. Through the creative-destructive process, entrepreneurs are often able to innovate and outperform incumbent organizations, all of which is supposed to lead to…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…
We study size and growth distributions of products and business firms in the context of a given industry. Firm size growth is analyzed in terms of two basic mechanisms, i.e. the increase of the number of new elementary business units and…