Related papers: Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…
The report considers the dynamics of the global population as the unique case of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter system. This category was introduced for complex systems dominated by mesoscale assemblies, emerging due to the inherent…
Economic competition between humans leads to income inequality, but, so far, there has been little understanding of underlying quantitative mechanisms governing such a collective behavior. We analyze datasets of household income from 67…
This article conducts a literature review on the topic of monetary policy in developing countries and focuses on the effectiveness of monetary policy in promoting economic growth and the relationship between monetary policy and economic…
We review models of compositional growth, which were introduced to explain the growth statistics of various quantities ranging from firm sizes to GDP. In these models, entities are decomposed into units that grow independently. Thus, the…
Economic growth depends on capital investments and on investments in education and innovation. The model introduced here will specifiy aggregate output as determined by aggregate supply of capital and education investment. After formulating…
This work studies the large sample properties of the posterior-based inference in the curved exponential family under increasing dimension. The curved structure arises from the imposition of various restrictions on the model, such as moment…
Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR,…
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America are…
We investigate the relation between economic growth and equality in a modified version of the agent-based asset exchange model (AEM). The modified model is a driven system that for a range of parameter space is effectively ergodic in the…
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model…
We consider an age-size structured cell population model based on the cell cycle length. The model is described by a first order partial differential equation with initial-boundary conditions. Using the theory of semigroups of positive…
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary…
In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy's gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image…
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not…
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40…
In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…
Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity.…